资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

In the light of the observed and projected regional warming trend in northern Europe, new recommendations are needed for climate-proofing the selection of forest trees seedlings and growth estimates. Drawing on recently developed climate data sets, both observations of the recent past, and scenarios for the future we present and analyse a set of climate indices tailored to be used for operational forestry applications.

Data covering Sweden and Finland include two high-resolution gridded observational data sets of daily mean temperature and daily total precipitation for the period 1961-2007, and an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections based on forcing data from six global scenarios representing a medium high emission scenario. The observation-based data sets are used as reference in two ways; as reference for downscaling and bias-adjustment of daily data from the regional scenarios and to highlight recent observed climate changes and how these changes are represented in the RCM ensemble.

For seasonal temperature and related climate indices, there is a clear change towards warmer conditions between the two periods 1961-1990 and 1988-2007, most clearly seen in the observational data and less pronounced in the RCM ensemble. For the future period 2035-2065, 'mid-century', the medium high scenario ensemble used in this study shows substantial changes to several key indices relevant to forestry applications.