Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5441 |
Evaluation of CMIP5 retrospective simulations of temperature and precipitation in northeastern Argentina | |
Lovino, Miguel A.1; Muller, Omar V.1; Berbery, Ernesto H.2; Muller, Gabriela V.1 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
![]() |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38页码:E1158-E1175 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Argentina; USA |
英文摘要 | It is generally agreed that models that better simulate historical and current features of climate should also be the ones that more reliably simulate future climate. This article describes the ability of a selection of global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to represent the historical and current mean climate and its variability over northeastern Argentina, a region that exhibits frequent extreme events. Two types of simulations are considered: Long-term simulations for 1901-2005 in which the models respond to climate forcing (e.g. changes in atmospheric composition and land use) and decadal simulations for 1961-2010 that are initialized from observed climate states. Monthly simulations of precipitation and temperature are statistically evaluated for individual models and their ensembles. Subsets of models that best represent the region's climate are further examined. First, models that have a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of at least 0.8 are taken as a subset that best represents the observed temperature fields and the mean annual cycle. Their temperature time series are in phase with observations (r > 0.92), despite systematic errors that if desired can be corrected by statistical methods. Likewise, models that have a precipitation Pearson correlation coefficient of at least 0.6 are considered that best represent regional precipitation features. GCMs are able to reproduce the annual precipitation cycle, although they underestimate precipitation amounts during the austral warm season (September through April) and slightly overestimate the cold season rainfall amounts. The ensembles for the subsets of models achieve the best evaluation metrics, exceeding the performance of the overall ensembles as well as those of the individual models. |
英文关键词 | temperature precipitation global climate models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) long-term simulations decadal simulations |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431999600077 |
WOS关键词 | LA-PLATA BASIN ; SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH-AMERICA ; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL ; INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY ; HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS ; COUPLED MODEL ; SYSTEM MODEL ; CLARIS-LPB ; EARTH ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37653 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Nacl Litoral, Fac Ingn & Ciencias Hidr, Ctr Estudios Variabilidad & Cambio Climat CEVARCA, CONICET, Santa Fe, Argentina; 2.Univ Maryland, Cooperat Inst Climate & Satellites Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lovino, Miguel A.,Muller, Omar V.,Berbery, Ernesto H.,et al. Evaluation of CMIP5 retrospective simulations of temperature and precipitation in northeastern Argentina[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38:E1158-E1175. |
APA | Lovino, Miguel A.,Muller, Omar V.,Berbery, Ernesto H.,&Muller, Gabriela V..(2018).Evaluation of CMIP5 retrospective simulations of temperature and precipitation in northeastern Argentina.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38,E1158-E1175. |
MLA | Lovino, Miguel A.,et al."Evaluation of CMIP5 retrospective simulations of temperature and precipitation in northeastern Argentina".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38(2018):E1158-E1175. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论