Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.10.001 |
Social cost of carbon under shared socioeconomic pathways | |
Yang, Pu1; 39;Maris2 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
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ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 53页码:225-232 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; England |
英文摘要 | The Social Carbon Cost (SCC) measures present value of future economic damages caused by an additional ton of carbon emissions, and is widely used by governments to design climate policies. Although the use of SCC is very extensive, its predictions are very difficult. Because the SCC is defined by social welfare associated with economic growth and population, its estimation is necessarily dependent on future assumptions that are difficult to project. Many approaches consider the impact of population or economic growth on the SCC, but these socioeconomic factors must be grounded on solid assumptions concerning political, technological and environmental developments. Over the past seven years, the climate change research community has established five plausible socioeconomic narratives, called 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' (SSPs), numbered SSP1-SSP5. These scenarios provide descriptions of how the future might unfold in several key areas. To this end, we use the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) to update the SCC under the five socioeconomic pathways, while also considering alternative damage functions and the social welfare discount rate to address uncertainty. The result of the China Climate Change integrated assessment model (C(3)IAM) were used to re-estimate parameters in DICE, therefore characterize the SSPs. The results show that, in a world developing towards regional rivalry (SSP3), the SCC today will likely double compared with other scenarios. If emerged developing countries will follow the same path as previous industrializations (SSP5), the SCC will experience a rapid increase after 2060. Inequality (SSP4) will experience low mitigation pressure under a sustainable development scenario (SSP1), while the historical development pattern (SSP2) will have a moderate SCC with higher uncertainty. The results can provide carbon price benchmarks for policy makers who hold different attitudes towards the future and can help address the need to avoid regional rivalries and fossil-fueled development, which may counteract mitigation efforts. |
英文关键词 | Climate change Integrated assessment model Social cost of carbon Shared socioeconomic pathways C(3)IAM DICE |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000455061900020 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE ; RISK ; MITIGATION ; FRAMEWORK ; ECONOMICS ; SCENARIOS ; GROWTH ; DAMAGE ; LEVEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37805 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 2.UCL, Bartlett Sch Construct & Project Management, London WC1E 7HB, England; 3.Sinopec, Sinopec Res Inst Petr Engn, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 4.Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 5.Beijing Key Lab Energy Econ & Environm Management, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 6.Sustainable Dev Res Inst Econ & Soc Beijing, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Pu,39;Maris. Social cost of carbon under shared socioeconomic pathways[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2018,53:225-232. |
APA | Yang, Pu,&39;Maris.(2018).Social cost of carbon under shared socioeconomic pathways.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,53,225-232. |
MLA | Yang, Pu,et al."Social cost of carbon under shared socioeconomic pathways".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 53(2018):225-232. |
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