Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004 |
The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century | |
O&1; 39;Neill, Brian C.2 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
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ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 42 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Germany; Thailand; Austria; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Long-term scenarios play an important role in research on global environmental change. The climate change research community is developing new scenarios integrating future changes in climate and society to investigate climate impacts as well as options for mitigation and adaptation. One component of these new scenarios is a set of alternative futures of societal development known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The conceptual framework for the design and use of the SSPs calls for the development of global pathways describing the future evolution of key aspects of society that would together imply a range of challenges for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Here we present one component of these pathways: the SSP narratives, a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources. We describe the methods used to develop the narratives as well as how these pathways are hypothesized to produce particular combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Development of the narratives drew on expert opinion to (1) identify key determinants of these challenges that were essential to incorporate in the narratives and (2) combine these elements in the narratives in a manner consistent with scholarship on their inter-relationships. The narratives are intended as a description of plausible future conditions at the level of large world regions that can serve as a basis for integrated scenarios of emissions and land use, as well as climate impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Scenarios Climate change Mitigation Adaptation Narratives Shared socioeconomic pathways |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394634500016 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; SCENARIO FRAMEWORK ; INCOME INEQUALITY ; ADAPTATION ; CONVERGENCE ; GROWTH |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37816 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80305 USA; 2.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany; 3.Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 4.Chulalongkorn Univ, Stockholm Environm Inst, 15th Floor,Witthyakit Bldg 254, Bangkok 10330, Thailand; 5.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria; 6.Graz Univ Technol, Graz, Austria; 7.Univ Denver, Frederick S Pardee Ctr Int Futures, Josef Korbel Sch Int Studies, 2201 South Gaylord St, Denver, CO 80208 USA; 8.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; 9.Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands; 10.Univ Stuttgart, Inst Spatial & Reg Planning, Pfaffenwaldring 7, D-70569 Stuttgart, Germany; 11.Wageningen Univ, Soil Geog & Landscape Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands; 12.Columbia Univ, Ctr Int Earth Sci Informat Network, 61 Route 9W,POB 1000, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 13.CUNY, Inst Sustainable Cities, 695 Pk Ave, New York, NY 10021 USA; 14.Hunter Coll City New York, Dept Geog, 695 Pk Ave, New York, NY 10021 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | O&,39;Neill, Brian C.. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2017,42. |
APA | O&,&39;Neill, Brian C..(2017).The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,42. |
MLA | O&,et al."The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 42(2017). |
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