Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.003 |
Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change | |
Haasnoot, Marjolijn1; 39;t Klooster, Susan2 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
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ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 52页码:273-285 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although efforts have been made to identify signposts to monitor, the question remains how to design a signal monitoring system that detects and anticipates (future) change to support adaptive planning. For example, to support water related infrastructure investments under uncertain climate change. What are good signposts to monitor and how to wisely analyse them to get timely and reliable signals for adaptation? In this paper, we present a framework for designing and using a monitoring plan as part of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach for decision making under uncertainty. We use the following criteria to evaluate signposts and their critical signal values: measurability, timeliness, reliability, convincibility and institutional connectivity. We illustrate the approach based on the signal monitoring system for the adaptive plan developed by the Delta Programme in the Netherlands. |
英文关键词 | Monitoring Adaptation pathways Deep uncertainty Early warning signals Investment planning Climate adaptation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000449444900025 |
WOS关键词 | ROBUST DECISION-MAKING ; DEEP UNCERTAINTY ; POLICY PATHWAYS ; TIPPING POINTS ; DELTA PROGRAM ; NETHERLANDS ; MANAGEMENT ; SCENARIOS ; KNOWLEDGE ; FORESIGHT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37836 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands; 2.Delft Univ Technol, Fac Policy & Management, Delft, Netherlands; 3.Savia, Amersfoort, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Haasnoot, Marjolijn,39;t Klooster, Susan. Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2018,52:273-285. |
APA | Haasnoot, Marjolijn,&39;t Klooster, Susan.(2018).Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,52,273-285. |
MLA | Haasnoot, Marjolijn,et al."Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 52(2018):273-285. |
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