Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.02.005 |
Unleashing expert judgment in assessment | |
Mach, Katharine J.1; Mastrandrea, Michael D.2; Freeman, Patrick T.2; Field, Christopher B.3 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
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ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44页码:43479 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Assessment evaluates accumulated knowledge and its limits. It informs and ideally empowers decisions and actions on complex, contested issues with persistent uncertainties. Applying rigorous expert judgment is an important dimension of assessment. Here we evaluate advances and challenges in approaches to expert judgment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). We find that revised guidance for author teams improved the development of balanced judgments on scientific evidence across disciplines. In particular, expert judgments underpinning conclusions are more extensively, transparently, and consistently communicated: degree-of-certainty terms are more abundant in AR5 policymaker summaries; wider ranges of possible outcomes are presented with greater inclusion of lower-certainty, decision-relevant findings; and expert judgments supporting conclusions are more comparable across working groups. But challenges in developing and communicating assessment conclusions persist, especially for findings with substantial uncertainties and for subjective aspects of judgments. Based on our evaluations and AR5 lessons learned, we propose a simpler, more rigorous framework for developing and communicating expert judgments in environmental assessment. We also describe practices for reducing expert-judgment biases, for advancing integration of evidence and expert judgment, and for addressing subjective dimensions of expert opinion directly and proactively. 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
英文关键词 | Expert judgment Assessment Uncertainties Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000405250800001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; UNCERTAINTIES ; IPCC ; SCIENCES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37873 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 2.Carnegie Inst Sci, Dept Global Ecol, 260 Panama St, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 3.Stanford Univ, Stanford Woods Inst Environm, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mach, Katharine J.,Mastrandrea, Michael D.,Freeman, Patrick T.,et al. Unleashing expert judgment in assessment[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2017,44:43479. |
APA | Mach, Katharine J.,Mastrandrea, Michael D.,Freeman, Patrick T.,&Field, Christopher B..(2017).Unleashing expert judgment in assessment.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,44,43479. |
MLA | Mach, Katharine J.,et al."Unleashing expert judgment in assessment".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 44(2017):43479. |
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