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DOI10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.02.005
Unleashing expert judgment in assessment
Mach, Katharine J.1; Mastrandrea, Michael D.2; Freeman, Patrick T.2; Field, Christopher B.3
2017-05-01
发表期刊GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
ISSN0959-3780
EISSN1872-9495
出版年2017
卷号44页码:43479
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Assessment evaluates accumulated knowledge and its limits. It informs and ideally empowers decisions and actions on complex, contested issues with persistent uncertainties. Applying rigorous expert judgment is an important dimension of assessment. Here we evaluate advances and challenges in approaches to expert judgment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). We find that revised guidance for author teams improved the development of balanced judgments on scientific evidence across disciplines. In particular, expert judgments underpinning conclusions are more extensively, transparently, and consistently communicated: degree-of-certainty terms are more abundant in AR5 policymaker summaries; wider ranges of possible outcomes are presented with greater inclusion of lower-certainty, decision-relevant findings; and expert judgments supporting conclusions are more comparable across working groups. But challenges in developing and communicating assessment conclusions persist, especially for findings with substantial uncertainties and for subjective aspects of judgments. Based on our evaluations and AR5 lessons learned, we propose a simpler, more rigorous framework for developing and communicating expert judgments in environmental assessment. We also describe practices for reducing expert-judgment biases, for advancing integration of evidence and expert judgment, and for addressing subjective dimensions of expert opinion directly and proactively. 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.


英文关键词Expert judgment Assessment Uncertainties Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000405250800001
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; UNCERTAINTIES ; IPCC ; SCIENCES
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37873
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 USA;
2.Carnegie Inst Sci, Dept Global Ecol, 260 Panama St, Stanford, CA 94305 USA;
3.Stanford Univ, Stanford Woods Inst Environm, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
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GB/T 7714
Mach, Katharine J.,Mastrandrea, Michael D.,Freeman, Patrick T.,et al. Unleashing expert judgment in assessment[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2017,44:43479.
APA Mach, Katharine J.,Mastrandrea, Michael D.,Freeman, Patrick T.,&Field, Christopher B..(2017).Unleashing expert judgment in assessment.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,44,43479.
MLA Mach, Katharine J.,et al."Unleashing expert judgment in assessment".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 44(2017):43479.
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