Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.05.007 |
The El Nino Southern Oscillation and economic growth in the developing world | |
Smith, Sarah C.1,2; Ubilav, David3 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
![]() |
ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 45 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather around the globe, particularly in regions where developing countries typically lie. These countries are known to be most vulnerable to weather anomalies, and ENSO thereby has the potential to influence their economic growth. In this study, we investigate the effect of ENSO on economic growth in 69 developing countries, using annual data from 1961 to 2015. We find regime dependent nonlinearity in the growth response to ENSO shocks. An El Nino event, equivalent to a 1 degrees C deviation in sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific, results in one-to-two percent annual growth reduction during the El Nino regime, but the effect is absent during the La Nina regime. In addition, we find that the effect of El Nino is twice-as-large in the tropics relative to temperate areas, and particularly pronounced in Africa and Asia-Pacific. The findings of this study have two important implications. From the modeling standpoint, we find that the growth impacts of ENSO shocks are nonlinear, and vary across regions and climatic zones. From the policy-making standpoint, our findings suggest opportunities for short-term adjustments to climate shock management and international aid programs, depending on the existing state and the intermediate-term patterns of the ENSO cycle. |
英文关键词 | Climate shocks Developing countries Economic growth El Nino Southern Oscillation Nonlinear effect |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411912800013 |
WOS关键词 | HETEROGENEOUS PANELS ; COMMODITY PRICES ; CROP PRODUCTION ; CLIMATE ; ENSO ; COUNTRIES ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; ASYMMETRIES ; ANOMALIES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37898 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Sydney, Fac Agr & Environm, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 2.Australian Bur Agr & Resource Econ & Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 3.Univ Sydney, Sch Econ, Sydney, NSW, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Smith, Sarah C.,Ubilav, David. The El Nino Southern Oscillation and economic growth in the developing world[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2017,45. |
APA | Smith, Sarah C.,&Ubilav, David.(2017).The El Nino Southern Oscillation and economic growth in the developing world.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,45. |
MLA | Smith, Sarah C.,et al."The El Nino Southern Oscillation and economic growth in the developing world".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 45(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论