Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015 |
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century | |
Kriegler, Elmar1; Bauer, Nico1; Popp, Alexander1; Humpenoeder, Florian1; Leimbach, Marian1; Strefler, Jessica1; Baumstark, Lavinia1; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1,9; Hilaire, Jerome1,8; Klein, David1; Mouratiadou, Ioanna1; Weindl, Isabelle1; Bertram, Christoph1; Dietrich, Jan -Philipp1; Luderer, Gunnar1; Pehl, Michaja1; Pietzcker, Robert1; Piontek, Franziska1; Lotze-Campen, Hermann1,2; Biewald, Anne1; Bonsch, Markus1; Giannousakis, Anastasis1; Kreidenweis, Ulrich1; Mueller, Christoph1; Rolinski, Susanne1; Schultes, Anselm1; Schwanitz, Jana1,10; Stevanovic, Miodrag1; Calvin, Katherine3; Emmerling, Johannes4,5; Fujimori, Shinichiro6; Edenhofer, Ottmar1,7,8 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
![]() |
ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 42 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; USA; Italy; Japan; Australia; Norway |
英文摘要 | This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
英文关键词 | Shared Socio-economic Pathway SSP5 Emission scenario Energy transformation Land-use change Integrated assessment modeling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394634500026 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; LAND-USE ; ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; MITIGATION ; EMISSIONS ; BIOENERGY ; FRAMEWORK ; DEMAND ; MODEL ; WORLD |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37943 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Telegraphenberg A 31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany; 2.Humboldt Univ, Dept Agr Econ, Berlin, Germany; 3.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD USA; 4.Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy; 5.Euromediterranen Ctr Climate Change, Milan, Italy; 6.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 7.Tech Univ Berlin, Berlin, Germany; 8.Mercator Res Inst Global Commons & Climate Change, Berlin, Germany; 9.Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org, St Lucia, Qld, Australia; 10.Sogn & Fjordane Univ Coll, Forde, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kriegler, Elmar,Bauer, Nico,Popp, Alexander,et al. Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2017,42. |
APA | Kriegler, Elmar.,Bauer, Nico.,Popp, Alexander.,Humpenoeder, Florian.,Leimbach, Marian.,...&Edenhofer, Ottmar.(2017).Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,42. |
MLA | Kriegler, Elmar,et al."Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 42(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论