Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.12.010 |
Ensemble forecasts of road surface temperatures | |
Sokol, Zbynek1; Bliznak, Vojtech1; Sedlak, Pavel1; Zacharov, Petr1; Pesice, Petr1; Skuthan, Miroslav2 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 187 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Czech Republic |
英文摘要 | This paper describes a new ensemble technique for road surface temperature (RST) forecasting using an energy balance and heat conduction model. Compared to currently used deterministic forecasts, the proposed technique allows the estimation of forecast uncertainty and probabilistic forecasts. The ensemble technique is applied to the METRO-CZ model and stems from error covariance analyses of the forecasted air temperature and humidity 2 m above the ground, wind speed at 10 m and total cloud cover N in octas by the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. N is used to estimate the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes. These variables are used to calculate the boundary conditions in the METRO-CZ model. We found that the variable N is crucial for generating the ensembles. Nevertheless, the ensemble spread is too small and underestimates the uncertainty in the RST forecast. One of the reasons is not considering errors in the rain and snow forecast by the NWP model when generating ensembles. Technical issues, such as incorrect sky view factors and the current state of road surface conditions also contribute to errors. Although the ensemble technique underestimates the uncertainty in the RST forecasts, it provides additional information to road authorities who provide winter road maintenance. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Road weather forecast Road surface temperature Ensemble prediction |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000393635300003 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37988 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Czech Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Bocni II 1401, Prague 14131, Czech Republic; 2.Czech Hydrometeorol Inst, Na Sabatce 2050-17, Prague 14306, Czech Republic |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sokol, Zbynek,Bliznak, Vojtech,Sedlak, Pavel,et al. Ensemble forecasts of road surface temperatures[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2017,187. |
APA | Sokol, Zbynek,Bliznak, Vojtech,Sedlak, Pavel,Zacharov, Petr,Pesice, Petr,&Skuthan, Miroslav.(2017).Ensemble forecasts of road surface temperatures.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,187. |
MLA | Sokol, Zbynek,et al."Ensemble forecasts of road surface temperatures".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 187(2017). |
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