Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004 |
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century | |
Fricko, Oliver1; Havlik, Petr1; Rogelj, Joeri1; Klimont, Zbigniew1; Gusti, Mykola1,2; Johnson, Nils1; Kolp, Peter1; Strubegger, Manfred1; Valin, Hugo1; Amann, Markus1; Ermolieva, Tatiana1; Forsell, Nicklas1; Herrero, Mario3; Heyes, Chris1; Kindermann, Georg1; Krey, Volker1; McCollum, David L.1; Obersteiner, Michael1; Pachauri, Shonali1; Rao, Shilpa1; Schmid, Erwin4; Schoepp, Wolfgang1; Riahi, Keywan1,5 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS |
ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 42 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Austria; Ukraine; Australia |
英文摘要 | Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or 'marker', implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 degrees C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 degrees C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
英文关键词 | Shared socioeconomic pathways SSP Greenhouse gas emissions Climate change Integrated assessment modeling Mitigation Adaptation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394634500023 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; AIR-POLLUTANTS ; EMISSIONS ; MITIGATION ; FRAMEWORK ; POLLUTION ; SECTOR ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37997 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; 2.Lviv Polytech Natl Univ, 12 Bandera St, UA-79013 Lvov, Ukraine; 3.CSIRO, 306 Carmody Rd, St Lucia, Qld, Australia; 4.Univ Nat Resource & Life Sci Vienna BOKU, Gregor Mendel Str 33, A-1180 Vienna, Austria; 5.Graz Univ Technol, A-8010 Graz, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fricko, Oliver,Havlik, Petr,Rogelj, Joeri,et al. The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2017,42. |
APA | Fricko, Oliver.,Havlik, Petr.,Rogelj, Joeri.,Klimont, Zbigniew.,Gusti, Mykola.,...&Riahi, Keywan.(2017).The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,42. |
MLA | Fricko, Oliver,et al."The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 42(2017). |
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