Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008 |
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm | |
van Vuuren, Detlef P.1,2; Stehfest, Elke1; Gernaat, David E. H. J.1,2; Doelman, Jonathan C.1; Van den Berg, Maarten1; Harmsen, Mathijs1,2; de Boer, Harmen Sytze1; Bouwman, Lex F.1,3; Daioglou, Vassilis1,2; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.1,2; Girod, Bastien4; Kram, Tom1; Lassaletta, Luis1; Lucas, Paul L.1; van Meijl, Hans5; Mueller, Christoph6; van Ruijven, Bas J.7; van der Sluis, Sietske1; Tabeau, Andrzej5 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
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ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 42 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; Switzerland; Germany; USA |
英文摘要 | This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementations of the SSPs (SSP2 and SSP3) and b) the SSP1 implementation of other integrated assessment models. The results show that a combination of resource efficiency, preferences for sustainable production methods and investment in human development could lead to a strong transition towards a more renewable energy supply, less land use and lower anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 than in 2010, even in the absence of explicit climate policies. At the same time, climate policy would still be needed to reduce emissions further, in order to reduce the projected increase of global mean temperature from 3 degrees C (SSP1 reference scenario) to 2 or 1.5 degrees C (in line with current policy targets). The SSP1 storyline could be a basis for further discussions on how climate policy can be combined with achieving other societal goals. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
英文关键词 | Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) Sustainable development Integrated assessment Climate change research Scenarios |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394634500022 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; SCENARIO FRAMEWORK ; AGRICULTURE ; WORLD |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38023 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 303, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands; 2.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands; 3.Univ Utrecht, Dept Geosci, Utrecht, Netherlands; 4.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Management Technol & Econ, Chair Sustainabil & Technol, Swiss Fed Inst Technol Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; 5.LEI Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Wageningen, Netherlands; 6.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany; 7.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van Vuuren, Detlef P.,Stehfest, Elke,Gernaat, David E. H. J.,et al. Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2017,42. |
APA | van Vuuren, Detlef P..,Stehfest, Elke.,Gernaat, David E. H. J..,Doelman, Jonathan C..,Van den Berg, Maarten.,...&Tabeau, Andrzej.(2017).Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,42. |
MLA | van Vuuren, Detlef P.,et al."Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 42(2017). |
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