Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.022 |
A statistical scheme to forecast the daily lightning threat over southern Africa using the Unified Model | |
Gijben, Morne1,2; Dyson, Liesl L.2; Loots, Mattheus T.3 | |
2017-09-15 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 194 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Africa |
英文摘要 | Cloud-to-ground lightning data from the Southern Africa Lightning Detection Network and numerical weather prediction model parameters from the Unified Model are used to develop a lightning threat index (LTI) for South Africa. The aim is to predict lightning for austral summer days (September to February) by means of a statistical approach. The austral summer months are divided into spring and summer seasons and analysed separately. Stepwise logistic regression techniques are used to select the most appropriate model parameters to predict lightning. These parameters are then utilized in a rare-event logistic regression analysis to produce equations for the LTI that predicts the probability of the occurrence of lightning. Results show that LTI forecasts have a high sensitivity and specificity for spring and summer. The LTI is less reliable during spring, since it over-forecasts the occurrence of lightning. However, during summer, the LTI forecast is reliable, only slightly over-forecasting lightning activity. The LTI produces sharp forecasts during spring and summer. These results show that the LTI will be useful early in the morning in areas where lightning can be expected during the day. |
英文关键词 | Lightning Forecasting Rare-event logistic regression Numerical weather prediction |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000405043700006 |
WOS关键词 | EVENT LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; ELECTRICAL CIRCUIT ; PRECIPITABLE WATER ; PREDICTION ; CLIMATOLOGY ; WEATHER ; FLORIDA ; TEMPERATURE ; INDICATOR ; RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38107 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.South African Weather Serv, 442 Rigel Ave South,Erasmusrand 0181, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa; 2.Univ Pretoria, Dept Geog Geoinformat & Meteorol, CNR, Lynnwood Rd & Roper St,Hatfield 0002, ZA-0028 Pretoria, South Africa; 3.Univ Pretoria, CNR, Dept Stat, Lynnwood Rd & Roper St,Hatfield 0002, ZA-0028 Pretoria, South Africa |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gijben, Morne,Dyson, Liesl L.,Loots, Mattheus T.. A statistical scheme to forecast the daily lightning threat over southern Africa using the Unified Model[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2017,194. |
APA | Gijben, Morne,Dyson, Liesl L.,&Loots, Mattheus T..(2017).A statistical scheme to forecast the daily lightning threat over southern Africa using the Unified Model.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,194. |
MLA | Gijben, Morne,et al."A statistical scheme to forecast the daily lightning threat over southern Africa using the Unified Model".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 194(2017). |
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