Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.018 |
Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature frequency and amplitude in China | |
Zhang, Yuanjie1,2; Gao, Zhiqiu1,3; Pan, Zaitao2; Li, Dan4; Huang, Xinhui5 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 185 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Temperature extremes in China are examined based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures from station observations and multiple global climate models. The magnitude and frequency of extremes are expressed in terms of return values and periods, respectively, estimated by the fitted Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of annual extreme temperatures. The observations suggest that changes in temperature extremes considerably exceed changes in the respective climatological means during the past five decades, with greater amplitude of increases in cold extremes than in warm extremes. The frequency of warm (cold) extremes increases (decreases) over most areas, with an increasingly faster rate as the extremity level rises. Changes in warm extremes are more dependent on the varying shape of GEV distribution than the location shift, whereas changes in cold extremes are more closely associated with the location shift. The models simulate the overall pattern of temperature extremes during 1961-1981 reasonably well in China, but they show a smaller asymmetry between changes in warm and cold extremes primarily due to their underestimation of increases in cold extremes especially over southern China. Projections from a high emission scenario show the multi-model median change in warm and cold extremes by 2040 relative to 1971 will be 2.6 degrees C and 2.8 degrees C, respectively, with the strongest changes in cold extremes shifting southward. By 2040, warm extremes at the 1971 20-year return values would occur about every three years, while the 1971 cold extremes would occur once in >500 years. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Climate change Temperature extremes Generalized Extreme Value distribution CMIP5 China |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000390737800013 |
WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; CLIMATE SIMULATIONS ; CHANGING CLIMATE ; ENSEMBLE ; TRENDS ; MAXIMUM ; PROJECTIONS ; STATISTICS ; EVENTS ; HEAT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38254 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Sch Geog & Remote Sensing, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.St Louis Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, St Louis, MO 63103 USA; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atm, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 4.Boston Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA; 5.Yancheng Meteorol Bur Jiangsu Prov, Yancheng 224005, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Yuanjie,Gao, Zhiqiu,Pan, Zaitao,et al. Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature frequency and amplitude in China[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2017,185. |
APA | Zhang, Yuanjie,Gao, Zhiqiu,Pan, Zaitao,Li, Dan,&Huang, Xinhui.(2017).Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature frequency and amplitude in China.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,185. |
MLA | Zhang, Yuanjie,et al."Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature frequency and amplitude in China".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 185(2017). |
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