GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.02.024
An ensemble-ANFIS based uncertainty assessment model for forecasting multi-scalar standardized precipitation index
Ali, Mumtaz; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Downs, Nathan J.; Maraseni, Tek
2018-07-15
发表期刊ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN0169-8095
EISSN1873-2895
出版年2018
卷号207页码:155-180
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
英文摘要

Forecasting drought by means of the World Meteorological Organization-approved Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is considered to be a fundamental task to support socio-economic initiatives and effectively mitigating the climate-risk. This study aims to develop a robust drought modelling strategy to forecast multi-scalar SPI in drought-rich regions of Pakistan where statistically significant lagged combinations of antecedent SPI are used to forecast future SPI. With ensemble-Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System ('ensemble-ANFIS') executed via a 10-fold cross-validation procedure, a model is constructed by randomly partitioned input-target data. Resulting in 10-member ensemble-ANFIS outputs, judged by mean square error and correlation coefficient in the training period, the optimal forecasts are attained by the averaged simulations, and the model is benchmarked with M5 Model Tree and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). The results show the proposed ensemble-ANFIS model's preciseness was notably better (in terms of the root mean square and mean absolute error including the Willmott's, Nash-Sutcliffe and Legates McCabe's index) for the 6- and 12- month compared to the 3-month forecasts as verified by the largest error proportions that registered in smallest error band. Applying 10-member simulations, ensemble-ANFIS model was validated for its ability to forecast severity (S), duration (D) and intensity (I) of drought (including the error bound). This enabled uncertainty between multi-models to be rationalized more efficiently, leading to a reduction in forecast error caused by stochasticity in drought behaviours. Through cross-validations at diverse sites, a geographic signature in modelled uncertainties was also calculated. Considering the superiority of ensemble-ANFIS approach and its ability to generate uncertainty-based information, the study advocates the versatility of a multi-model approach for drought-risk forecasting and its prime importance for estimating drought properties over confidence intervals to generate better information for strategic decision-making.


英文关键词Standardized precipitation index Drought forecasting Ensemble based adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system M5 tree Minimax probability machine regression
领域地球科学
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000430901800013
WOS关键词SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE ; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; EXTREME LEARNING-MACHINE ; EFFECTIVE DROUGHT INDEX ; EASTERN AUSTRALIA ; PAN EVAPORATION ; HYBRID MODEL ; FUZZY-LOGIC ; PREDICTION ; ALGORITHM
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38289
专题地球科学
作者单位Univ Southern Queensland, Inst Agr & Environm, Sch Agr Computat & Environm Sci, Springfield, Qld 4300, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ali, Mumtaz,Deo, Ravinesh C.,Downs, Nathan J.,et al. An ensemble-ANFIS based uncertainty assessment model for forecasting multi-scalar standardized precipitation index[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2018,207:155-180.
APA Ali, Mumtaz,Deo, Ravinesh C.,Downs, Nathan J.,&Maraseni, Tek.(2018).An ensemble-ANFIS based uncertainty assessment model for forecasting multi-scalar standardized precipitation index.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,207,155-180.
MLA Ali, Mumtaz,et al."An ensemble-ANFIS based uncertainty assessment model for forecasting multi-scalar standardized precipitation index".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 207(2018):155-180.
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