GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.015
Skilful rainfall forecasts from artificial neural networks with long duration series and single-month optimization
Abbot, John1,2,3; Marohasy, Jennifer1,2
2017-11-15
发表期刊ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN0169-8095
EISSN1873-2895
出版年2017
卷号197
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
英文摘要

General circulation models, which forecast by first modelling actual conditions in the atmosphere and ocean, are used extensively for monthly rainfall forecasting. We show how more skilful monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasts can be achieved through the mining of historical climate data using artificial neural networks (ANNs). This technique is demonstrated for two agricultural regions of Australia: the wheat belt of Western Australia and the sugar growing region of coastal Queensland. The most skilful monthly rainfall forecasts measured in terms of Ideal Point Error (IPE), and a score relative to climatology, are consistently achieved through the use of ANNs optimized for each month individually, and also by choosing to input longer historical series of climate indices. Using the longer series restricts the number of climate indices that can be used.


领域地球科学
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000412250700024
WOS关键词FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM ; SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL ; SEASONAL RAINFALL ; WESTERN-AUSTRALIA ; PRECIPITATION PREDICTION ; CLIMATE INDEXES ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; EASTERN AUSTRALIA ; WAVELET ANALYSIS ; ARID REGIONS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38472
专题地球科学
作者单位1.Climate Modelling Lab, Noosa, Qld, Australia;
2.Inst Publ Affairs, Melbourne, Vic, Australia;
3.James Cook Univ, Townsville, Qld, Australia
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GB/T 7714
Abbot, John,Marohasy, Jennifer. Skilful rainfall forecasts from artificial neural networks with long duration series and single-month optimization[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2017,197.
APA Abbot, John,&Marohasy, Jennifer.(2017).Skilful rainfall forecasts from artificial neural networks with long duration series and single-month optimization.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,197.
MLA Abbot, John,et al."Skilful rainfall forecasts from artificial neural networks with long duration series and single-month optimization".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 197(2017).
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