Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.3354/cr01502 |
Drought in the Southeastern USA: an assessment of downscaled CMIP5 models | |
Engstroem, Johanna1; Keellings, David2 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0936-577X |
EISSN | 1616-1572 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 74期号:3页码:251-262 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The Southeastern USA has been repeatedly affected by severe droughts that have impacted the environment and economy of the region. In this study, the ability of 32 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, downscaled using localized constructed analogs (LOCA), to simulate historical observations of dry spells from 1950 to 2005 are assessed using Perkins skill scores and significance tests. The analysis is split between cold and warm seasons based on timing of agricultural planting and harvesting dates of key crops. The models generally simulate the distribution of dry days well but there are significant differences between the ability of the best-and worst-performing models, particularly when it comes to the upper tail of the distribution. Only the top models provide a good estimate of extreme dry-spell lengths with simulations of 20 yr return values within +/- 5 d of observed values across the region. The findings provide guidance on selection of a suitable model ensemble for assessment of future drought risk in the Southeastern USA. |
英文关键词 | Drought Localized constructed analogs LOCA climate models Precipitation Southeastern USA |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428114400005 |
WOS关键词 | DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ; UNITED-STATES ; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; CLIMATE MODELS ; 20TH-CENTURY ; SKILL ; SIMULATIONS ; OSCILLATION ; VARIABILITY ; STREAMFLOW |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38481 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Florida, Dept Geog, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; 2.Univ Alabama, Dept Geog, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Engstroem, Johanna,Keellings, David. Drought in the Southeastern USA: an assessment of downscaled CMIP5 models[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2018,74(3):251-262. |
APA | Engstroem, Johanna,&Keellings, David.(2018).Drought in the Southeastern USA: an assessment of downscaled CMIP5 models.CLIMATE RESEARCH,74(3),251-262. |
MLA | Engstroem, Johanna,et al."Drought in the Southeastern USA: an assessment of downscaled CMIP5 models".CLIMATE RESEARCH 74.3(2018):251-262. |
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