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DOI | 10.3354/cr01536 |
Robustness of high-resolution regional climate projections for Greenland: a method for uncertainty distillation | |
Olesen, Martin1; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg1,2,3; Kaas, Eigil2; Boberg, Fredrik1 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0936-577X |
EISSN | 1616-1572 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 76期号:3页码:253-268 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Denmark; Norway |
英文摘要 | Managing adaptation to climate changes in Greenland will depend, to a large degree, on high-resolution climate simulations and associated uncertainty estimates. A single high-resolution climate simulation is generally insufficient to quantify the uncertainty of a given scenario projection. For Greenland, this becomes a critical issue because of a lack of high-resolution climate experiments for this region. Therefore, we introduce and test a new method to solve this uncertainty assessment problem. Using the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM5 over Greenland in combination with an ensemble of RCM simulations from a different geographical setting, (i.e. EURO-CORDEX), we investigate to what extent the uncertainty of projected climate change at high resolution can be evaluated from corresponding temperature spreads in a wider set of global climate models (GCMs), that is, CMIP5. The study is based on a set of time-slice simulations down-scaled with HIRHAM5 at 5.5 km resolution for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for Greenland with boundary information from the GCM EC-Earth. Our proposed uncertainty assessment method establishes a foundation on which high-resolution and relatively costly regional climate projections can be assessed as well as when using only a single RCM without the presence of analogous down-scaling experiments with other RCMs and GCMs, and instead relying on existing information from CMIP5. Thus, the uncertainty of a wide range of climate indices that scales with temperature can be evaluated and quantified through the inter-model temperature spread within CMIP5. |
英文关键词 | Greenland Climate change Climate indices Uncertainty quantification Climate adaptation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452889800005 |
WOS关键词 | EURO-CORDEX ; MODEL ; TEMPERATURE ; SIMULATIONS ; PRECIPITATION ; CMIP5 ; PERFORMANCE ; SCENARIO |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38572 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Danish Meteorol Inst, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark; 2.Niels Bohr Inst, Juliane Maries Vej 30, DK-2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark; 3.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, Jahnebakken 5, N-5007 Bergen, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olesen, Martin,Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg,Kaas, Eigil,et al. Robustness of high-resolution regional climate projections for Greenland: a method for uncertainty distillation[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2018,76(3):253-268. |
APA | Olesen, Martin,Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg,Kaas, Eigil,&Boberg, Fredrik.(2018).Robustness of high-resolution regional climate projections for Greenland: a method for uncertainty distillation.CLIMATE RESEARCH,76(3),253-268. |
MLA | Olesen, Martin,et al."Robustness of high-resolution regional climate projections for Greenland: a method for uncertainty distillation".CLIMATE RESEARCH 76.3(2018):253-268. |
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