Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.3354/cr01520 |
Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of+1.5 degrees and+2.0 degrees C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments | |
Ruane, Alex C.1; 39;Croz, Daniel2 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0936-577X |
EISSN | 1616-1572 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 76期号:1页码:17-39 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Austria; Australia; Germany |
英文摘要 | This study presents results of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of + 1.5 degrees and + 2.0 degrees C global warming above pre-industrial conditions. This first CGRA application provides multi-discipline, multi-scale, and multi-model perspectives to elucidate major challenges for the agricultural sector caused by direct biophysical impacts of climate changes as well as ramifications of associated mitigation strategies. Agriculture in both target climate stabilizations is characterized by differential impacts across regions and farming systems, with tropical maize Zea mays experiencing the largest losses, while soy Glycine max mostly benefits. The result is upward pressure on prices and area expansion for maize and wheat Triticum aestivum, while soy prices and area decline (results for rice Oryza sativa aremixed). An example global mitigation strategy encouraging bioenergy expansion is more disruptive to land use and crop prices than the climate change impacts alone, even in the + 2.0 degrees C scenario which has a larger climate signal and lower mitigation requirement than the + 1.5 degrees C scenario. Coordinated assessments reveal that direct biophysical and economic impacts can be substantially larger for regional farming systems than global production changes. Regional farmers can buffer negative effects or take advantage of new opportunities via mitigation incentives and farm management technologies. Primary uncertainties in the CGRA framework include the extent of CO2 benefits for diverse agricultural systems in crop models, as simulations without CO2 benefits show widespread production losses that raise prices and expand agricultural area. |
英文关键词 | Climate change Agricultural system Food prices Mitigation CO2 Crop model Climate stabilization Climate impact |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000446365400002 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ELEVATED CO2 ; CROP YIELD ; MODEL ; FOOD ; RESPONSES ; GENERATION ; SCENARIOS ; PROTOCOLS ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38574 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 2.Oregon State Univ, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA; 3.Univ Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 USA; 4.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; 5.Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; 6.Int Food Policy Res Inst, Washington, DC 20005 USA; 7.CSIRO, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia; 8.Potsdam Inst Climate Impacts Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany; 9.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA; 10.USDA, Econ Res Serv, Washington, DC 20036 USA; 11.USDA ARS, Maricopa, AZ 85239 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ruane, Alex C.,39;Croz, Daniel. Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of+1.5 degrees and+2.0 degrees C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2018,76(1):17-39. |
APA | Ruane, Alex C.,&39;Croz, Daniel.(2018).Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of+1.5 degrees and+2.0 degrees C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments.CLIMATE RESEARCH,76(1),17-39. |
MLA | Ruane, Alex C.,et al."Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of+1.5 degrees and+2.0 degrees C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments".CLIMATE RESEARCH 76.1(2018):17-39. |
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