Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions.

doi:10.2172/1008117

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.2172/1008117
报告编号	SAND2010-6203
来源ID	OSTI ID: 1008117
	Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions.
	Safta, Cosmin; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.; Sargsyan, Khachik
	2010-09-01
出版年	2010
页数	44
语种	英语
国家	美国
领域	地球科学
英文摘要	Uncertainty quantificatio in climate models is challenged by the sparsity of the available climate data due to the high computational cost of the model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analyses from being easily applicable is the bifurcative behavior in the climate data with respect to certain parameters. A typical example is the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. The maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO{sub 2} forcing. We develop a methodology that performs uncertainty quantificatio in the presence of limited data that have discontinuous character. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity location with a Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve location in presence of arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Furthermore, we developed a spectral approach that relies on Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on each sides of the discontinuity curve leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of discontinuous data with adjustable sharpness and structure.
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来源平台	US Department of Energy (DOE)
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/5107
专题	地球科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Safta, Cosmin,Debusschere, Bert J.,Najm, Habib N.,et al. Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions.,2010.