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Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Ni帽o response to global warming 期刊论文
Nature, 2020
作者:  Wenju Cai;  Benjamin Ng;  Tao Geng;  Lixin Wu;  Agus Santoso;  Michael J. McPhaden
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/09/08
Ice retreat in Wilkes Basin of East Antarctica during a warm interglacial 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7817) : 554-+
作者:  T. Blackburn;  G. H. Edwards;  S. Tulaczyk;  M. Scudder;  G. Piccione;  B. Hallet;  N. McLean;  J. C. Zachos;  B. Cheney;  J. T. Babbe
收藏  |  浏览/下载:21/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/09

Uranium isotopes in subglacial precipitates from the Wilkes Basin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet reveal ice retreat during a warm Pleistocene interglacial period about 400,000 years ago.


Efforts to improve sea level forecasting on a warming planet have focused on determining the temperature, sea level and extent of polar ice sheets during Earth'  s past interglacial warm periods(1-3). About 400,000 years ago, during the interglacial period known as Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS11), the global temperature was 1 to 2 degrees Celsius greater(2)and sea level was 6 to 13 metres higher(1,3). Sea level estimates in excess of about 10 metres, however, have been discounted because these require a contribution from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet(3), which has been argued to have remained stable for millions of years before and includes MIS11(4,5). Here we show how the evolution of(234)U enrichment within the subglacial waters of East Antarctica recorded the ice sheet'  s response to MIS11 warming. Within the Wilkes Basin, subglacial chemical precipitates of opal and calcite record accumulation of(234)U (the product of rock-water contact within an isolated subglacial reservoir) up to 20 times higher than that found in marine waters. The timescales of(234)U enrichment place the inception of this reservoir at MIS11. Informed by the(234)U cycling observed in the Laurentide Ice Sheet, where(234)U accumulated during periods of ice stability(6)and was flushed to global oceans in response to deglaciation(7), we interpret our East Antarctic dataset to represent ice loss within the Wilkes Basin at MIS11. The(234)U accumulation within the Wilkes Basin is also observed in the McMurdo Dry Valleys brines(8-10), indicating(11)that the brine originated beneath the adjacent East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The marine origin of brine salts(10)and bacteria(12)implies that MIS11 ice loss was coupled with marine flooding. Collectively, these data indicate that during one of the warmest Pleistocene interglacials, the ice sheet margin at the Wilkes Basin retreated to near the precipitate location, about 700 kilometres inland from the current position of the ice margin, which-assuming current ice volumes-would have contributed about 3 to 4 metres(13)to global sea levels.


  
Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7815) : 242-+
作者:  David J. Beerling;  Euripides P. Kantzas;  Mark R. Lomas;  Peter Wade;  Rafael M. Eufrasio;  Phil Renforth;  Binoy Sarkar;  M. Grace Andrews;  Rachael H. James;  Christopher R. Pearce;  Jean-Francois Mercure;  Hector Pollitt;  Philip B. Holden;  Neil R. Edwards;  Madhu Khanna;  Lenny Koh;  Shaun Quegan;  Nick F. Pidgeon;  Ivan A. Janssens;  James Hansen;  Steven A. Banwart
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/14

Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable with croplands, has potential use for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic climate change(1). ERW also has possible co-benefits for improved food and soil security, and reduced ocean acidification(2-4). Here we use an integrated performance modelling approach to make an initial techno-economic assessment for 2050, quantifying how CDR potential and costs vary among nations in relation to business-as-usual energy policies and policies consistent with limiting future warming to 2 degrees Celsius(5). China, India, the USA and Brazil have great potential to help achieve average global CDR goals of 0.5 to 2gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year with extraction costs of approximately US$80-180 per tonne of CO2. These goals and costs are robust, regardless of future energy policies. Deployment within existing croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy. However, success will depend upon overcoming political and social inertia to develop regulatory and incentive frameworks. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of ERW deployment, including the potential for excess industrial silicate materials (basalt mine overburden, concrete, and iron and steel slag) to obviate the need for new mining, as well as uncertainties in soil weathering rates and land-ocean transfer of weathered products.


  
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:56/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.


  
Oceanic forcing of penultimate deglacial and last interglacial sea-level rise 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7792) : 660-+
作者:  Rizal, Yan;  Westaway, Kira E.;  Zaim, Yahdi;  van den Bergh, Gerrit D.;  Bettis, E. Arthur, III;  Morwood, Michael J.;  Huffman, O. Frank;  Grun, Rainer;  Joannes-Boyau, Renaud;  Bailey, Richard M.;  Sidarto;  Westaway, Michael C.;  Kurniawan, Iwan;  Moore, Mark W.;  Storey, Michael;  Aziz, Fachroel;  Suminto;  Zhao, Jian-xin;  Aswan;  Sipola, Maija E.;  Larick, Roy;  Zonneveld, John-Paul;  Scott, Robert;  Putt, Shelby;  Ciochon, Russell L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:21/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Sea-level histories during the two most recent deglacial-interglacial intervals show substantial differences(1-3) despite both periods undergoing similar changes in global mean temperature(4,5) and forcing from greenhouse gases(6). Although the last interglaciation (LIG) experienced stronger boreal summer insolation forcing than the present interglaciation(7), understanding why LIG global mean sea level may have been six to nine metres higher than today has proven particularly challenging(2). Extensive areas of polar ice sheets were grounded below sea level during both glacial and interglacial periods, with grounding lines and fringing ice shelves extending onto continental shelves(8). This suggests that oceanic forcing by subsurface warming may also have contributed to ice-sheet loss(9-12) analogous to ongoing changes in the Antarctic(13,14) and Greenland(15) ice sheets. Such forcing would have been especially effective during glacial periods, when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) experienced large variations on millennial timescales(16), with a reduction of the AMOC causing subsurface warming throughout much of the Atlantic basin(9,12,17). Here we show that greater subsurface warming induced by the longer period of reduced AMOC during the penultimate deglaciation can explain the more-rapid sea-level rise compared with the last deglaciation. This greater forcing also contributed to excess loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the LIG, causing global mean sea level to rise at least four metres above modern levels. When accounting for the combined influences of penultimate and LIG deglaciation on glacial isostatic adjustment, this excess loss of polar ice during the LIG can explain much of the relative sea level recorded by fossil coral reefs and speleothems at intermediate- and far-field sites.


  
Early climate models successfully predicted global warming 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7793) : 45-46
作者:  Bertolucci, Sergio;  Mulargia, Francesco;  Giardini, Domenico
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

An evaluation of past climate-model forecasts.


Climate models published between 1970 and 2007 provided accurate forecasts of subsequently observed global surface warming. This finding shows the value of using global observations to vet climate models as the planet warms.


  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Comment on "The global tree restoration potential" 期刊论文
SCIENCE, 2019, 366 (6463)
作者:  Veldman, Joseph W.;  Aleman, Julie C.;  Alvarado, Swanni T.;  Anderson, T. Michael;  Archibald, Sally;  Bond, William J.;  Boutton, Thomas W.;  Buchmann, Nina;  Buisson, Elise;  Canadell, Josep G.;  Dechoum, Michele de Sa;  Diaz-Toribio, Milton H.;  Durigan, Giselda;  Ewel, John J.;  Fernandes, G. Wilson;  Fidelis, Alessandra;  Fleischman, Forrest;  Good, Stephen P.;  Griffith, Daniel M.;  Hermann, Julia-Maria;  Hoffmann, William A.;  Le Stradic, Soizig;  Lehmann, Caroline E. R.;  Mahy, Gregory;  Nerlekar, Ashish N.;  Nippert, Jesse B.;  Noss, Reed F.;  Osborne, Colin P.;  Overbeck, Gerhard E.;  Parr, Catherine L.;  Pausas, Juli G.;  Pennington, R. Toby;  Perring, Michael P.;  Putz, Francis E.;  Ratnam, Jayashree;  Sankaran, Mahesh;  Schmidt, Isabel B.;  Schmitt, Christine B.;  Silveira, Fernando A. O.;  Staver, A. Carla;  Stevens, Nicola;  Still, Christopher J.;  Stromberg, Caroline A. E.;  Temperton, Vicky M.;  Varner, J. Morgan;  Zaloumis, Nicholas P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5 degrees C 期刊论文
SCIENCE, 2019, 365 (6459) : 1263-+
作者:  Hoegh-Guldberg, O.;  Jacob, D.;  Taylor, M.;  Bolanos, T. Guillen;  Bindi, M.;  Brown, S.;  Camilloni, I. A.;  Diedhiou, A.;  Djalante, R.;  Ebi, K.;  Engelbrecht, F.;  Guiot, J.;  Hijioka, Y.;  Mehrotra, S.;  Hope, C. W.;  Payne, A. J.;  Poertner, H. -O.;  Seneviratne, S. I.;  Thomas, A.;  Warren, R.;  Zhou, G.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27