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The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7790) : 364-+
作者:  Krebs, John R.;  Hassell, Michael
收藏  |  浏览/下载:49/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands(1,2). They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change(3,4), yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here we present a global water tower index (WTI), which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each water tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socioeconomic changes. We conclude that the most important (highest WTI) water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountainous areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world'  s most important and vulnerable water towers.


  
Integrated Drought Management Programme Working Paper, 01. Benefits of action and costs of inaction: Drought mitigation and preparedness – a literature review 科技报告
来源:World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 出版年: 2017
作者:  Nicolas Gerber;  Alisher Mirzabaev
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Drought Preparedness and Mitigation  Socio-economic benefits  International  
Benefits of action and costs of inaction: Drought mitigation and preparedness ? a literature review 科技报告
来源:World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 出版年: 2017
作者:  Nicolas Gerber;  Alisher Mirzabaev
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Drought Preparedness and Mitigation  Socio-economic benefits  - International  
Valuing Weather and Climate 科技报告
来源:World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 出版年: 2015
作者:  World Meteorological Organization;  World Bank;  United States Agency for International Development;  Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Weather service  Water service  Socio-economic benefits  - International  Technical Publications  
Seventeenth World Meteorological Congress: Abridged final report with resolutions 科技报告
来源:World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 出版年: 2015
作者:  World Meteorological Organization
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Governance Publications  WMO Events' Publications  Climate  Environment  Oceans  Natural hazards  Weather  Observations  Information management  Capacity-building  Socio-economic benefits  Cg-17  
Seventeenth World Meteorological Congress 科技报告
来源:World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 出版年: 2015
作者:  World Meteorological OrganizationEvent:
收藏  |  浏览/下载:3/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Governance Publications  WMO Events' Publications  Climate  Environment  Oceans  Natural hazards  Weather  Observations  Information management  Capacity-building  Socio-economic benefits  Cg-17  
Economic Dimensions of Improved Meteorological Services in the Pacific 科技报告
来源:World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 出版年: 2014
作者:  Paula Holland
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Weather service  Socio-economic benefits  Region V - South-West Pacific  
SPC SOPAC Published Report, 185. Economic Dimensions of Improved Meteorological Services in the Pacific 科技报告
来源:World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 出版年: 2014
作者:  Paula Holland
收藏  |  浏览/下载:3/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Weather service  Socio-economic benefits  Region V - South-West Pacific  
World Meteorological Congress - Extraordinary session: abridged final report with resolutions 科技报告
来源:World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 出版年: 2012
作者:  World Meteorological Organization
收藏  |  浏览/下载:2/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Governance Publications  WMO Events' Publications  Climate  Environment  Oceans  Natural hazards  Weather  Observations  Information management  Capacity-building  Socio-economic benefits