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Partial cross mapping eliminates indirect causal influences 期刊论文
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 2020, 11 (1)
作者:  Leng, Siyang;  Ma, Huanfei;  Kurths, Juergen;  Lai, Ying-Cheng;  Lin, Wei;  Aihara, Kazuyuki;  Chen, Luonan
收藏  |  浏览/下载：23/0  |  提交时间：2020/06/01
Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2020, 117 (23) : 12915-12922
作者:  Barfuss, Wolfra;  Donges, Jonathan F.;  Vasconcelos, Vitor V.;  Kurths, Juergen;  Levin, Simon A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：25/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/25
social dilemma  stochastic game  tipping element  time preferences  
Complexity-based approach for El Nino magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2020, 117 (1) : 177-183
作者:  Meng, Jun;  Fan, Jingfang;  Ludescher, Josef;  Agarwal, Ankit;  Chen, Xiaosong;  Bunde, Armin;  Kurths, Juergen;  Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
收藏  |  浏览/下载：28/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13
ENSO  system complexity  entropy  spring barrier  forecasting  
A network-based comparative study of extreme tropical and frontal storm rainfall over Japan 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 521-532
作者:  Ozturk, Ugur;  Malik, Nishant;  Cheung, Kevin;  Marwan, Norbert;  Kurths, Juergen
收藏  |  浏览/下载：26/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Extreme rainfall  Baiu  Tropical storms  Event synchronization  Complex networks  
Can Intensification of Cattle Ranching Reduce Deforestation in the Amazon? Insights From an Agent-based Social-Ecological Model 期刊论文
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, 2019, 159: 198-211
作者:  Mueller-Hansen, Finn;  Heitzig, Jobst;  Donges, Jonathan F.;  Cardoso, Manoel F.;  Dalla-Nora, Eloi L.;  Andrade, Pedro;  Kurths, Juergen;  Thonicke, Kirsten
收藏  |  浏览/下载：15/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
Amazon deforestation  Land-use intensification  Pasture management  Social-ecological systems  Agent-based modeling  
Higher resilience to climatic disturbances in tropical vegetation exposed to more variable rainfall 期刊论文
NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2019, 12 (3) : 174-+
作者:  Ciemer, Catrin;  Boers, Niklas;  Hirota, Marina;  Kurths, Juergen;  Mueller-Hansen, Finn;  Oliveira, Rafael S.;  Winkelmann, Ricarda
收藏  |  浏览/下载：15/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 52: 2199-2216
作者:  Gavrilov, Andrey;  Seleznev, Aleksei;  Mukhin, Dmitry;  Loskutov, Evgeny;  Feigin, Alexander;  Kurths, Juergen
收藏  |  浏览/下载：20/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Empirical modeling  Data dimensionality reduction  Nonlinear stochastic modeling  ENSO forecast  
Climate change perception: an analysis of climate change and risk perceptions among farmer types of Indian Western Himalayas 期刊论文
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2019, 152 (1) : 103-119
作者:  Shukla, Roopam;  Agarwal, Ankit;  Sachdeva, Kamna;  Kurths, Juergen;  Joshi, P. K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：23/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Nonlinear reconstruction of global climate leading modes on decadal scales 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 51: 2301-2310
作者:  Mukhin, Dmitry;  Gavrilov, Andrey;  Loskutov, Evgeny;  Feigin, Alexander;  Kurths, Juergen
收藏  |  浏览/下载：17/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Climate modes  Nonlinear data decomposition  Teleconnection patterns  Climate shifts  Pacific decadal oscillation  
Characterizing the exceptional 2014 drought event in So Paulo by drought period length 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 51: 433-442
作者:  Zou, Yong;  Macau, Elbert E. N.;  Sampaio, Gilvan;  Ramos, Antonio M. T.;  Kurths, Juergen
收藏  |  浏览/下载：17/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Drought period length  Precipitation  Southeast Brazil  Sea surface temperature  Sea level pressure  South Atlantic ocean