资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Environmental change is rapidly accelerating, and many species will need to adapt to survive(1). Ensuring that protected areas cover populations across a broad range of environmental conditions could safeguard the processes that lead to such adaptations(1-3). However, international conservation policies have largely neglected these considerations when setting targets for the expansion of protected areas(4). Here we show that-of 19,937 vertebrate species globally(5-8)-the representation of environmental conditions across their habitats in protected areas (hereafter, niche representation) is inadequate for 4,836 (93.1%) amphibian, 8,653 (89.5%) bird and 4,608 (90.9%) terrestrial mammal species. Expanding existing protected areas to cover these gaps would encompass 33.8% of the total land surface-exceeding the current target of 17% that has been adopted by governments. Priority locations for expanding the system of protected areas to improve niche representation occur in global biodiversity hotspots(9), including Colombia, Papua New Guinea, South Africa and southwest China, as well as across most of the major land masses of the Earth. Conversely, we also show that planning for the expansion of protected areas without explicitly considering environmental conditions would marginally reduce the land area required to 30.7%, but that this would lead to inadequate niche representation for 7,798 (39.1%) species. As the governments of the world prepare to renegotiate global conservation targets, policymakers have the opportunity to help to maintain the adaptive potential of species by considering niche representation within protected areas(1,2).

Protected areas would need to expand to 33.8% of the total land surface to adequately represent environmental conditions across the habitats of amphibians, birds and terrestrial mammals, far exceeding the current 17% target.

Colonization, speciation and extinction are dynamic processes that influence global patterns of species richness(1-6). Island biogeography theory predicts that the contribution of these processes to the accumulation of species diversity depends on the area and isolation of the island(7,8). Notably, there has been no robust global test of this prediction for islands where speciation cannot be ignored(9), because neither the appropriate data nor the analytical tools have been available. Here we address both deficiencies to reveal, for island birds, the empirical shape of the general relationships that determine how colonization, extinction and speciation rates co-vary with the area and isolation of islands. We compiled a global molecular phylogenetic dataset of birds on islands, based on the terrestrial avifaunas of 41 oceanic archipelagos worldwide (including 596 avian taxa), and applied a new analysis method to estimate the sensitivity of island-specific rates of colonization, speciation and extinction to island features (area and isolation). Our model predicts-with high explanatory power-several global relationships. We found a decline in colonization with isolation, a decline in extinction with area and an increase in speciation with area and isolation. Combining the theoretical foundations of island biogeography(7,8) with the temporal information contained in molecular phylogenies(10) proves a powerful approach to reveal the fundamental relationships that govern variation in biodiversity across the planet.

Using a global molecular phylogenetic dataset of birds on islands, the sensitivity of island-specific rates of colonization, speciation and extinction to island features (area and isolation) is estimated.