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Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (2)
作者:  van Ginkel, Kees C. H.;  Botzen, W. J. Wouter;  Haasnoot, Marjolijn;  Bachner, Gabriel;  Steininger, Karl W.;  Hinkel, Jochen;  Watkiss, Paul;  Boere, Esther;  Jeuken, Ad;  de Murieta, Elisa Sainz;  Bosello, Francesco
收藏  |  浏览/下载：24/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/02
tipping points  climate change  systematic review  socio-economic  stakeholder consultation  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：41/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Spatial early warning signals for impending regime shifts: A practical framework for application in real-world landscapes 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (6) : 1905-1921
作者:  Nijp, Jelmer J.;  Temme, Arnaud J. A. M.;  van Voorn, George A. K.;  Kooistra, Lammert;  Hengeveld, Geerten M.;  Soons, Merel B.;  Teuling, Adriaan J.;  Wallinga, Jakob
收藏  |  浏览/下载：24/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
alternative stable states  critical slowing down  early warning signals  ecosystem resilience  environmental change  landscapes  regime shifts  remote sensing  spatial patterns  tipping points  
A 3,000-year lag between the geological and ecological shutdown of Florida's coral reefs 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (11) : 5471-5483
作者:  Toth, Lauren T.;  Kuffner, Ilsa B.;  Stathakopoulos, Anastasios;  Shinn, Eugene A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：19/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
bioerosion  climate change  coral reefs  ecological tipping points  Holocene  reef accretion  sea level  western Atlantic  
Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship-an interdisciplinary literature review 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (3)
作者:  Milkoreit, Manjana;  Hodbod, Jennifer;  Baggio, Jacopo;  Benessaiah, Karina;  Calderon-Contreras, Rafael;  Donges, Jonathan F.;  Mathias, Jean-Denis;  Rocha, Juan Carlos;  Schoon, Michael;  Werners, Saskia E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：14/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
non-linear change  tipping points  social-ecological systems  social tipping points  
Opportunistic attachment assembles plant-pollinator networks 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2017, 20 (10)
作者:  Ponisio, Lauren C.;  Gaiarsa, Marilia P.;  Kremen, Claire
收藏  |  浏览/下载：15/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Change points  modularity  mutualism  nestedness  preferential attachment  restoration  robustness  community assembly  
Energy and Environment in the Barack Obama–Hu Jintao Meeting 科技报告
来源：Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 出版年： 2011
作者:  David Pumphrey;  Sarah Ladislaw
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
Analysis  Asia  China  Climate Change and Environmental Impacts  Energy and National Security Program  Energy and Geopolitics  Energy and Sustainability  Innovation and New Energy Sources  Markets  Trends  and Outlooks  Pivot Points: Resources on Chinese President Hu Jintao's State Visit