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科学家通过还原熔岩流过程揭示了大陆运移的奥秘 快报文章
地球科学快报,2025年第10期
作者:  张树良
Microsoft Word(18Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:447/0  |  提交时间:2025/05/25
TGFZ  fault movement  tectonic plates collide  volcanic and earthquake risks  global models of continental deformation  
2025年全球风险报告:环境风险主导未来十年展望 快报文章
资源环境快报,2025年第4期
作者:  牛艺博
Microsoft Word(20Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:418/2  |  提交时间:2025/02/28
Global Risks  Environment  Multilateral Cooperation  
未来10年极端气候事件是全球最大风险 快报文章
气候变化快报,2024年第3期
作者:  董利苹
Microsoft Word(15Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:753/0  |  提交时间:2024/02/05
2024  Global Risks  
世界经济论坛发布《2023年全球风险报告》 快报文章
气候变化快报,2023年第3期
作者:  刘燕飞
Microsoft Word(16Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:886/1  |  提交时间:2023/02/05
Global Risks  Mitigate Climate Change  Climate-change Adaptation  Natural Disasters and Extreme Weather Events  
WEF报告指出气候行动不力是全球面临的最大长期威胁 快报文章
气候变化快报,2022年第03期
作者:  廖琴
Microsoft Word(18Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:865/0  |  提交时间:2022/02/06
Global Risks  Extreme Weather  Climate Action Failure  Environmental Risks  
全球科学家认为极端天气仍是全球发生可能性最高的风险 快报文章
气候变化快报,2022年第02期
作者:  董利苹
Microsoft Word(16Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:815/0  |  提交时间:2022/01/19
Future Earth  Global  Risks Perceptions  
查塔姆研究所解读英国如何将全球安全纳入其气候战略 快报文章
气候变化快报,2021年第5期
作者:  董利苹
Microsoft Word(15Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:493/0  |  提交时间:2021/03/05
Mitigating the Climate Change Risks  Global Security  UK leadership  
WEF风险报告将环境风险确认为未来10年的首要问题 快报文章
气候变化快报,2021年第4期
作者:  刘燕飞
Microsoft Word(14Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:554/0  |  提交时间:2021/02/20
Global Risks  COVID-19  climate action  
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:80/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.