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Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7797) : 80-+
作者:  Wannes Hubau;  Simon L. Lewis;  Oliver L. Phillips;  Kofi Affum-Baffoe;  Hans Beeckman;  Aida Cuní;  -Sanchez;  Armandu K. Daniels;  Corneille E. N. Ewango;  Sophie Fauset;  Jacques M. Mukinzi;  Douglas Sheil;  Bonaventure Sonké;  Martin J. P. Sullivan;  Terry C. H. Sunderland;  Hermann Taedoumg;  Sean C. Thomas;  Lee J. T. White;  Katharine A. Abernethy;  Stephen Adu-Bredu;  Christian A. Amani;  Timothy R. Baker;  Lindsay F. Banin;  Fidè;  le Baya;  Serge K. Begne;  Amy C. Bennett;  Fabrice Benedet;  Robert Bitariho;  Yannick E. Bocko;  Pascal Boeckx;  Patrick Boundja;  Roel J. W. Brienen;  Terry Brncic;  Eric Chezeaux;  George B. Chuyong;  Connie J. Clark;  Murray Collins;  James A. Comiskey;  David A. Coomes;  Greta C. Dargie;  Thales de Haulleville;  Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem;  Jean-Louis Doucet;  Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert;  Ted R. Feldpausch;  Alusine Fofanah;  Ernest G. Foli;  Martin Gilpin;  Emanuel Gloor;  Christelle Gonmadje;  Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury;  Jefferson S. Hall;  Alan C. Hamilton;  David J. Harris;  Terese B. Hart;  Mireille B. N. Hockemba;  Annette Hladik;  Suspense A. Ifo;  Kathryn J. Jeffery;  Tommaso Jucker;  Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu;  Elizabeth Kearsley;  David Kenfack;  Alexander Koch;  Miguel E. Leal;  Aurora Levesley;  Jeremy A. Lindsell;  Janvier Lisingo;  Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez;  Jon C. Lovett;  Jean-Remy Makana;  Yadvinder Malhi;  Andrew R. Marshall;  Jim Martin;  Emanuel H. Martin;  Faustin M. Mbayu;  Vincent P. Medjibe;  Vianet Mihindou;  Edward T. A. Mitchard;  Sam Moore;  Pantaleo K. T. Munishi;  Natacha Nssi Bengone;  Lucas Ojo;  Fidè;  le Evouna Ondo;  Kelvin S.-H. Peh;  Georgia C. Pickavance;  Axel Dalberg Poulsen;  John R. Poulsen;  Lan Qie;  Jan Reitsma;  Francesco Rovero;  Michael D. Swaine;  Joey Talbot;  James Taplin;  David M. Taylor;  Duncan W. Thomas;  Benjamin Toirambe;  John Tshibamba Mukendi;  Darlington Tuagben;  Peter M. Umunay;  Geertje M. F. van der Heijden;  Hans Verbeeck;  Jason Vleminckx;  Simon Willcock;  Hannsjö;  rg Wö;  ll;  John T. Woods;  Lise Zemagho
收藏  |  浏览/下载:73/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions(1-3). Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest '  carbon sink'  will continue for decades(4,5). Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests(6). Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth'  s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature(7-9). Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth'  s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass(10) reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth'  s climate.


  
An integrated biophysical and economic modeling framework for long-term sustainability analysis: the HARMONEY model 期刊论文
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, 2020, 169
作者:  King, Carey W.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:21/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Energy  Resources  Macroeconomics  Post-Keynesian  Dynamics  Long-term growth  
Palaeoclimate evidence of vulnerable permafrost during times of low sea ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 221-+
作者:  Vaks, A.;  Mason, A. J.;  Breitenbach, S. F. M.;  Kononov, A. M.;  Osinzev, A. V.;  Rosensaft, M.;  Borshevsky, A.;  Gutareva, O. S.;  Henderson, G. M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:34/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Climate change in the Arctic is occurring rapidly, and projections suggest the complete loss of summer sea ice by the middle of this century(1). The sensitivity of permanently frozen ground (permafrost) in the Northern Hemisphere to warming is less clear, and its long-term trends are harder to monitor than those of sea ice. Here we use palaeoclimate data to show that Siberian permafrost is robust to warming when Arctic sea ice is present, but vulnerable when it is absent. Uranium-lead chronology of carbonate deposits (speleothems) in a Siberian cave located at the southern edge of continuous permafrost reveals periods in which the overlying ground was not permanently frozen. The speleothem record starts 1.5 million years ago (Ma), a time when greater equator-to-pole heat transport led to a warmer Northern Hemisphere(2). The growth of the speleothems indicates that permafrost at the cave site was absent at that time, becoming more frequent from about 1.35 Ma, as the Northern Hemisphere cooled, and permanent after about 0.4 Ma. This history mirrors that of year-round sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, which was largely absent before about 0.4 Ma (ref.(3)), but continuously present since that date. The robustness of permafrost when sea ice is present, as well as the increased permafrost vulnerability when sea ice is absent, can be explained by changes in both heat and moisture transport. Reduced sea ice may contribute to warming of Arctic air(4-6), which can lead to warming far inland(7). Open Arctic waters also increase the source of moisture and increase autumn snowfall over Siberia, insulating the ground from low winter temperatures(8-10). These processes explain the relationship between an ice-free Arctic and permafrost thawing before 0.4 Ma. If these processes continue during modern climate change, future loss of summer Arctic sea ice will accelerate the thawing of Siberian permafrost.


  
Long-term physiological and growth responses of Himalayan fir to environmental change are mediated by mean climate 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Panthi, Shankar;  Fan, Ze-Xin;  van der Sleen, Peter;  Zuidema, Pieter A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
central Himalaya  climate change  elevation gradients  high-elevation forests  Himalayan fir (Abies spectabilis)  intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE)  long-term growth trends  tree rings  
Soil microbial moisture dependences and responses to drying-rewetting: The legacy of 18 years drought 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (3) : 1005-1015
作者:  de Nijs, Evy A.;  Hicks, Lettice C.;  Leizeaga, Ainara;  Tietema, Albert;  Rousk, Johannes
收藏  |  浏览/下载:26/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
bacterial growth  climate change  drought adaptation  drying-rewetting  long-term field experiment  resistance and resilience  respiration  
Effect of forest structure on stand productivity in Central European forests depends on developmental stage and tree species diversity 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2019, 434: 193-204
作者:  Zeller, Laura;  Pretzsch, Hans
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Age effect  Biodiversity-productivity relationship  Forest stand growth  Gini coefficient  Increment  Long-term experiments  Niche complementarity  Structural complexity  
Contribution of climate vs. larch budmoth outbreaks in regulating biomass accumulation in high-elevation forests 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2017, 401
作者:  Peters, Richard L.;  Klesse, Stefan;  Fonti, Patrick;  Frank, David C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:27/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Forest biomass  Long-term growth change  Tree-ring analysis  Climate change  Insect outbreak  European Alps  Zeiraphera diniana