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Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7797) : 80-+
作者:  Wannes Hubau;  Simon L. Lewis;  Oliver L. Phillips;  Kofi Affum-Baffoe;  Hans Beeckman;  Aida Cuní;  -Sanchez;  Armandu K. Daniels;  Corneille E. N. Ewango;  Sophie Fauset;  Jacques M. Mukinzi;  Douglas Sheil;  Bonaventure Sonké;  Martin J. P. Sullivan;  Terry C. H. Sunderland;  Hermann Taedoumg;  Sean C. Thomas;  Lee J. T. White;  Katharine A. Abernethy;  Stephen Adu-Bredu;  Christian A. Amani;  Timothy R. Baker;  Lindsay F. Banin;  Fidè;  le Baya;  Serge K. Begne;  Amy C. Bennett;  Fabrice Benedet;  Robert Bitariho;  Yannick E. Bocko;  Pascal Boeckx;  Patrick Boundja;  Roel J. W. Brienen;  Terry Brncic;  Eric Chezeaux;  George B. Chuyong;  Connie J. Clark;  Murray Collins;  James A. Comiskey;  David A. Coomes;  Greta C. Dargie;  Thales de Haulleville;  Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem;  Jean-Louis Doucet;  Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert;  Ted R. Feldpausch;  Alusine Fofanah;  Ernest G. Foli;  Martin Gilpin;  Emanuel Gloor;  Christelle Gonmadje;  Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury;  Jefferson S. Hall;  Alan C. Hamilton;  David J. Harris;  Terese B. Hart;  Mireille B. N. Hockemba;  Annette Hladik;  Suspense A. Ifo;  Kathryn J. Jeffery;  Tommaso Jucker;  Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu;  Elizabeth Kearsley;  David Kenfack;  Alexander Koch;  Miguel E. Leal;  Aurora Levesley;  Jeremy A. Lindsell;  Janvier Lisingo;  Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez;  Jon C. Lovett;  Jean-Remy Makana;  Yadvinder Malhi;  Andrew R. Marshall;  Jim Martin;  Emanuel H. Martin;  Faustin M. Mbayu;  Vincent P. Medjibe;  Vianet Mihindou;  Edward T. A. Mitchard;  Sam Moore;  Pantaleo K. T. Munishi;  Natacha Nssi Bengone;  Lucas Ojo;  Fidè;  le Evouna Ondo;  Kelvin S.-H. Peh;  Georgia C. Pickavance;  Axel Dalberg Poulsen;  John R. Poulsen;  Lan Qie;  Jan Reitsma;  Francesco Rovero;  Michael D. Swaine;  Joey Talbot;  James Taplin;  David M. Taylor;  Duncan W. Thomas;  Benjamin Toirambe;  John Tshibamba Mukendi;  Darlington Tuagben;  Peter M. Umunay;  Geertje M. F. van der Heijden;  Hans Verbeeck;  Jason Vleminckx;  Simon Willcock;  Hannsjö;  rg Wö;  ll;  John T. Woods;  Lise Zemagho
收藏  |  浏览/下载:71/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions(1-3). Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest '  carbon sink'  will continue for decades(4,5). Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests(6). Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth'  s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature(7-9). Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth'  s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass(10) reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth'  s climate.


  
Predicting post-fire attack of red turpentine or western pine beetle on ponderosa pine and its impact on mortality probability in Pacific Northwest forests 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2019, 434: 181-192
作者:  Westlind, Douglas J.;  Kelsey, Rick G.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:35/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Bole scorch  Dendroctonus brevicomis  Dendroctonus valens  Ethanol  Kairomones  Mortality models  Pinus ponderosa  Primary attraction  
Tree Shade, Temperature, and Human Health: Evidence from Invasive Species-induced Deforestation 期刊论文
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, 2019, 156: 12-23
作者:  Jones, Benjamin A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Temperature  Tree shade  Mortality and morbidity  Emerald ash borer  Bioeconomic models  
The diversity of population responses to environmental change 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2019, 22 (2) : 342-353
作者:  Colchero, Fernando;  39;donnell, Colin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Age-structured population models  Bayesian inference  fecundity  mortality  survival  
Oysters as sentinels of climate variability and climate change in coastal ecosystems 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (10)
作者:  Thomas, Yoann;  Cassou, Christophe;  Gernez, Pierre;  Pouvreau, Stephane
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
North Atlantic  weather regime  oyster  monitoring network  mortality risk assessment  climate models  RCP scenarios  
Signals of large scale climate drivers, hatchery enhancement, and marine factors in Yukon River Chinook salmon survival revealed with a Bayesian life history model 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (9) : 4399-4416
作者:  Cunningham, Curry J.;  Westley, Peter A. H.;  Adkison, Milo D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:20/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Bayesian estimation  Chinook salmon conservation  climate change  environmental regulation of survival  life cycle models  marine and freshwater mortality  salmon assessment  Yukon River  
Uncertainties in estimates of mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5 in Europe 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (6)
作者:  Kushta, Jonilda;  Pozzer, Andrea;  Lelieveld, Jos
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
mortality estimates  regional atmospheric models  impact of aerosols on human health  uncertainties in PM2.5  
Historical and event-based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (5) : 1952-1964
作者:  Lloret, Francisco;  Kitzberger, Thomas
收藏  |  浏览/下载:15/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
climate change  climatic niche  core vs  edge populations  correlative niche models  drought-induced die-off  extreme climatic events  forest dieback  tree mortality  
The effects of burning season and severity on the mortality over time of Pinus nigra spp. salzmannii (Dunal) Franco and P. sylvestris L. 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2017, 406
作者:  Valor, Teresa;  Ramon Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose;  Pique, Miriam;  Casals, Pere
收藏  |  浏览/下载:19/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Delayed mortality  Dormant season  Forest management  Fire ecology  Prescribed fire  Prescribed burning  Post-fire mortality models  Tree phenology  
Survival functions for boreal tree species in northwestern North America 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2017, 402
作者:  Cortini, Francesco;  Comeau, Philip G.;  Strimbu, Vlad C.;  Hogg, E. H. (Ted);  Bokalo, Mike;  Huang, Shongming
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Tree survival  Mortality  Logistic models  Estimates of competition  Climate variables