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NERC利用数字孪生技术推动环境科学变革 快报文章
资源环境快报,2024年第2期
作者:  薛明媚,王金平
Microsoft Word(17Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:768/0  |  提交时间:2024/01/30
Digital Twin  Ocean Forecast  NERC  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:31/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Forecast-Oriented Assessment of Decadal Hindcast Skill for North Atlantic SST 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Borchert, Leonard F.;  Duesterhus, Andre;  Brune, Sebastian;  Mueller, Wolfgang A.;  Baehr, Johanna
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
decadal climate prediction  North Atlantic  ocean heat transport  forecast verification  
Evaluation of tropical Pacific observing systems using NCEP and GFDL ocean data assimilation systems 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 49 (3)
作者:  Xue, Yan;  Wen, Caihong;  Yang, Xiaosong;  Behringer, David;  Kumar, Arun;  Vecchi, Gabriel;  Rosati, Anthony;  Gudgel, Rich
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Tropical Pacific observing system  Ocean data assimilation systems  Observing system experiment  ENSO monitoring and ENSO forecast  Argo data  TAo/TRITON data  
MJO prediction using the sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast model of Beijing Climate Center 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 48
作者:  Liu, Xiangwen;  Wu, Tongwen;  Yang, Song;  Li, Tim;  Jie, Weihua;  Zhang, Li;  Wang, Zaizhi;  Liang, Xiaoyun;  Li, Qiaoping;  Cheng, Yanjie;  Ren, Hongli;  Fang, Yongjie;  Nie, Suping
收藏  |  浏览/下载:29/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
MJO forecast skill  Indian Ocean Dipole  Improved initial condition  Model deficiency  
Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall 科技报告
来源:World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 出版年: 2011
作者:  Andrew Charles;  Harry H. Hendon;  Q.J. Wang;  David Robertson;  Eun-Pa Lim
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Water  Hydrological forecast  Precipitation forecasting  Ocean-atmosphere interaction  Numerical weather prediction  Sea ice  Australia