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Dietary shift and social hierarchy from the Proto-Shang to Zhou Dynasty in the Central Plains of China 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (3)
作者:  Li, Xin;  Zhang, Shanjia;  Lu, Minxia;  Qiu, Menghan;  Wen, Shaoqing;  Ma, Minmin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:28/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
carbon and nitrogen isotopic analysis  bronze age  central plains  socio-economic status  social resilience  climate change  
Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (2)
作者:  van Ginkel, Kees C. H.;  Botzen, W. J. Wouter;  Haasnoot, Marjolijn;  Bachner, Gabriel;  Steininger, Karl W.;  Hinkel, Jochen;  Watkiss, Paul;  Boere, Esther;  Jeuken, Ad;  de Murieta, Elisa Sainz;  Bosello, Francesco
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
tipping points  climate change  systematic review  socio-economic  stakeholder consultation  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:41/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7790) : 364-+
作者:  Krebs, John R.;  Hassell, Michael
收藏  |  浏览/下载:64/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands(1,2). They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change(3,4), yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here we present a global water tower index (WTI), which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each water tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socioeconomic changes. We conclude that the most important (highest WTI) water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountainous areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world'  s most important and vulnerable water towers.


  
A systematic review of the socio-economic impacts of large-scale tree plantations, worldwide 期刊论文
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 2018, 53: 90-103
作者:  Malkamaki, Arttu;  39;Amato, Dalia
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Socio-economic impacts  Land use change  Local communities  Plantation forestry  Planted forests  Land grabbing  
Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model: Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation 期刊论文
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 2018, 48: 119-135
作者:  Doelman, Jonathan C.;  Stehfest, Elke;  Tabeau, Andrzej;  van Meijl, Hans;  Lassaletta, Luis;  Gernaat, David E. H. J.;  Hermans, Kathleen;  Harmsen, Mathijs;  Daioglou, Vassilis;  Biemans, Hester;  van der Sluis, Sietske;  van Vuuren, Detlef P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:29/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)  Integrated assessment  Land-use change  Climate change mitigation  Bioenergy  REDD  
Transit-oriented development on greenfield versus infill sites: Some lessons from Hong Kong 期刊论文
LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING, 2017, 167
作者:  Loo, Becky P. Y.;  Cheng, Amy H. T.;  Nichols, Samantha L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:16/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Greenfield sites  Infill sites  Rail-based transit-oriented development  Socio-economic change  Land use  Travel behavior  
Scaling up biofuels? A critical look at expectations, performance and governance 期刊论文
ENERGY POLICY, 2017, 110
作者:  Goetz, Ariane;  German, Laura;  Weigelt, Jes
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Biofuels  Environmental governance  Climate change  Socio-economic expectations  Risk perception  Sustainability  Upscaling  Policy making  
Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward 期刊论文
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, 2017, 138
作者:  Balint, T.;  Lamperti, F.;  Mandel, A.;  Napoletano, M.;  Roventini, A.;  Sapio, A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Climate change  Climate policy  Climate economics  Complex systems  Agent-based models  Socio-economic networks  
A physically-based model of long-term food demand 期刊论文
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 2017, 45
作者:  Bijl, David L.;  Bogaart, Patrick W.;  Dekker, Stefan C.;  Stehfest, Elke;  de Vries, Bert J. M.;  van Vuuren, Detlef P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:16/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Food demand  Food demand projections  Food waste  Dietary change  Income inequality  Income elasticity  Urban  Rural  Integrated assessment models  Shared socio-economic pathways  Undernourishment