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The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：8/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Comparison of the aridity index and its drivers in eight climatic regions in China in recent years and in future projections 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (14) : 5256-5272
作者:  Li, Yanzhong;  Yu, Wenjun;  Wang, Kaiwen;  Ma, Xieyao
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2020/02/17
aridity index  attribution  climatic regions  global climate models (GCMs)  
Weak Cooling of Cold Extremes Versus Continued Warming of Hot Extremes in China During the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2018, 123 (8) : 4073-4087
作者:  Shen, Xiangjin;  Liu, Binhui;  Lu, Xianguo
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
climate change  temperature extremes  warming hiatus  climatic regions  China  
Objective climate classification of Slovenia 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2017, 37
作者:  Kozjek, Katja;  Dolinar, Mojca;  Skok, Gregor
收藏  |  浏览/下载：0/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
climate classification  Slovenia  climatic regions  factor analysis  clustering