GSTDTAP

浏览/检索结果: 共7条,第1-7条 帮助

已选(0)清除 条数/页:   排序方式:
Assimilating multi-satellite snow data in ungauged Eurasia improves the simulation accuracy of Asian monsoon seasonal anomalies 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (6)
作者:  Lin, Peirong;  Yang, Zong-Liang;  Wei, Jiangfeng;  Dickinson, Robert E.;  Zhang, Yongfei;  Zhao, Long
收藏  |  浏览/下载:25/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
Asian monsoon  dynamical seasonal forecast  multi-satellite snow data assimilation  GRACE  MODIS  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:30/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Deterministic Skill of Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts for the East Africa-West Asia Sector from September to May 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019, 124 (22) : 11887-11896
作者:  Vigaud, N.;  Tippett, M. K.;  Robertson, A. W.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:22/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
S2S rainfall forecasts show statistically significant skill in the East Africa-West Asia sector out to Week 4  Forecast skill of dynamical models exceeds that of statistical models based on ENSO and the MJO  Tropical-temperate interactions may represent a new source of S2S predictability  
How does ENSO diversity limit the skill of tropical Pacific precipitation forecasts in dynamical seasonal predictions? 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 5815-5831
作者:  Sohn, Soo-Jin;  Tam, Chi-Yung;  Kug, Jong-Seong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:16/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
ENSO diversity  ENSO prediction  SST forecast  Tropical Pacific precipitation forecast  Dynamical seasonal prediction  Multimodal ensemble  
Direct and indirect seasonal rainfall forecasts for East Africa using global dynamical models 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Colman, Andrew W.;  Graham, Richard J.;  Davey, Michael K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
canonical correlation analysis  dynamical long-range forecast systems  Greater Horn of Africa  seasonal rainfall prediction  
On the Relationship Between Probabilistic and Deterministic Skills in Dynamical Seasonal Climate Prediction 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2018, 123 (10) : 5261-5283
作者:  Yang, Dejian;  Yang, Xiu-Qun;  Ye, Dan;  Sun, Xuguang;  Fang, Jiabei;  Chu, Cuijiao;  Feng, Tao;  Jiang, Yiquan;  Liang, Jin;  Ren, Xuejuan;  Zhang, Yaocun;  Tang, Youmin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:22/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
seasonal climate prediction  dynamical forecast  forecast skill  probabilistic forecast  deterministic forecast  reliability and resolution  
A seasonal prediction for the wet-cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical-dynamical approach 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2018, 38 (2) : 571-583
作者:  Promchote, Parichart;  Wang, S. -Y. Simon;  Shen, Yuan;  Johnson, Paul G.;  Yao, Ming-Hwi
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
seasonal forecast  wet-cold spells  winter-crop damage  CFSv2  climate diagnosis  empirical-dynamical model  Taiwan