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On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (2)
作者:  Caesar, L.;  Rahmstorf, S.;  Feulner, G.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:25/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation  global surface warming  ocean heat uptake  
Early climate models successfully predicted global warming 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7793) : 45-46
作者:  Bertolucci, Sergio;  Mulargia, Francesco;  Giardini, Domenico
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

An evaluation of past climate-model forecasts.


Climate models published between 1970 and 2007 provided accurate forecasts of subsequently observed global surface warming. This finding shows the value of using global observations to vet climate models as the planet warms.


  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:41/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:30/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
US temperatures: Time trends and persistence 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (13) : 5091-5103
作者:  Gil-Alana, Luis A.;  Sauci, Laura
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
climate change  fractional integration  global warming  long memory  time trend  surface temperature  
The global warming hiatus has faded away: An analysis of 2014-2016 global surface air temperatures 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (12) : 4853-4868
作者:  Zhang, Chao;  Li, Shuanglin;  Luo, Feifei;  Huang, Zhen
收藏  |  浏览/下载:22/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
global annual surface temperature  record warming in recent years  timescale separation  warming hiatus  
More extreme marine heatwaves in the China Seas during the global warming hiatus 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (10)
作者:  Li, Yan;  Ren, Guoyu;  Wang, Qingyuan;  You, Qinglong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
marine heatwave  sea surface temperature  global warming hiatus  China seas  
Impacts of global warming on the surface water balance components in Iran as simulated by RegCM4 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (5) : 2646-2658
作者:  Moslemzadeh, Elham;  Irannejad, Parviz;  Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
global warming  precipitation  RCP4  5 and RCP8  5 scenarios  RegCM4  surface temperature  
Recent global warming as confirmed by AIRS 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (4)
作者:  Susskind, J.;  Schmidt, G. A.;  Lee, J. N.;  Iredell, L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
global surface temperature  recent warming  AIRS  GISTEMP  
A Recent Reversal in the Poleward Shift of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 45 (18) : 9944-9952
作者:  Sun, Y.;  Li, T.;  Zhong, Z.;  Yi, L.;  Chen, X.;  Ha, Y.;  Zhu, J.;  Shen, Y.;  Xu, Z.;  Hu, Y.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:35/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
tropical cyclone  poleward migration  climate change  global warming  warming hiatus  sea surface temperature