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Emulating climate extreme indices 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (7)
作者:  Tebaldi, C.;  Armbruster, A.;  Engler, H. P.;  Link, R.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:19/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
extreme indices  emulation  scenarios  pattern scaling  time shift  internal variability  error metric  
Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop production 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (7)
作者:  Qian, Budong;  Jing, Qi;  Smith, Ward;  Grant, Brian;  Cannon, Alex J.;  Zhang, Xuebin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
climate change impacts  crop production  crop modelling  internal climate variability  uncertainty  
The Influence of Internal Climate Variability on Projections of Synoptically Driven Beijing Haze 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (11)
作者:  Callahan, Christopher W.;  Mankin, Justin S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:20/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/20
air quality  large ensembles  internal variability  health impacts  China  
Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect-Model Framework 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (9)
作者:  Spring, Aaron;  Ilyina, Tatiana
收藏  |  浏览/下载:21/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
decadal predictability  atmospheric CO2  carbon fluxes  internal variability  Earth System Model  
"Warm Arctic-Cold Siberia" as an Internal Mode Instigated by North Atlantic Warming 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (9)
作者:  Jin, Chunhan;  Wang, Bin;  Yang, Young-Min;  Liu, Jian
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
"Warm Arctic-Cold Siberia" pattern  AMO  multi-decadal variations  internal mode of variability  Asian winter monsoon  greenhouse gases forcing  
Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (5)
作者:  Maher, Nicola;  Lehner, Flavio;  Marotzke, Jochem
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
internal variability  SMILEs  large ensembles  short-term projections  mid-term projections  surface temperature  model differences  
Internal state dynamics shape brainwide activity and foraging behaviour 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 239-+
作者:  Marques, Joao C.;  Li, Meng;  Schaak, Diane;  Robson, Drew N.;  Li, Jennifer M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:20/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

The brain has persistent internal states that can modulate every aspect of an animal'  s mental experience(1-4). In complex tasks such as foraging, the internal state is dynamic(5-8). Caenorhabditis elegans alternate between local search and global dispersal(5). Rodents and primates exhibit trade-offs between exploitation and exploration(6,7). However, fundamental questions remain about how persistent states are maintained in the brain, which upstream networks drive state transitions and how state-encoding neurons exert neuromodulatory effects on sensory perception and decision-making to govern appropriate behaviour. Here, using tracking microscopy to monitor whole-brain neuronal activity at cellular resolution in freely moving zebrafish larvae(9), we show that zebrafish spontaneously alternate between two persistent internal states during foraging for live prey (Paramecia). In the exploitation state, the animal inhibits locomotion and promotes hunting, generating small, localized trajectories. In the exploration state, the animal promotes locomotion and suppresses hunting, generating long-ranging trajectories that enhance spatial dispersion. We uncover a dorsal raphe subpopulation with persistent activity that robustly encodes the exploitation state. The exploitation-state-encoding neurons, together with a multimodal trigger network that is associated with state transitions, form a stochastically activated nonlinear dynamical system. The activity of this oscillatory network correlates with a global retuning of sensorimotor transformations during foraging that leads to marked changes in both the motivation to hunt for prey and the accuracy of motor sequences during hunting. This work reveals an important hidden variable that shapes the temporal structure of motivation and decision-making.


  
Internal Variability Dominates Over Externally Forced Ocean Circulation Changes Seen Through CFCs 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (9)
作者:  Lester, J. G.;  Lovenduski, N. S.;  Graven, H. D.;  Long, M. C.;  Lindsay, K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:20/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
internal variability  Southern Ocean  model ensemble  Circumpolar Deep Water  Subantarctic Mode Water  CFC12  
A Large Ensemble Approach to Quantifying Internal Model Variability Within the WRF Numerical Model 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2020, 125 (7)
作者:  Bassett, R.;  Young, P. J.;  Blair, G. S.;  Samreen, F.;  Simm, W.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
ensemble  initial conditions  internal model variability (IMV)  regional climate model (RCM)  uncertainty  Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)  
Accurate compound-specific C-14 dating of archaeological pottery vessels 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 506-+
作者:  Yin, Yafei;  Lu, J. Yuyang;  Zhang, Xuechun;  Shao, Wen;  Xu, Yanhui;  Li, Pan;  Hong, Yantao;  Cui, Li;  Shan, Ge;  Tian, Bin;  Zhang, Qiangfeng Cliff;  Shen, Xiaohua
收藏  |  浏览/下载:35/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Pottery is one of the most commonly recovered artefacts from archaeological sites. Despite more than a century of relative dating based on typology and seriation(1), accurate dating of pottery using the radiocarbon dating method has proven extremely challenging owing to the limited survival of organic temper and unreliability of visible residues(2-4). Here we report a method to directly date archaeological pottery based on accelerator mass spectrometry analysis of C-14 in absorbed food residues using palmitic (C-16:0) and stearic (C-18:0) fatty acids purified by preparative gas chromatography(5-8). We present accurate compound-specific radiocarbon determinations of lipids extracted from pottery vessels, which were rigorously evaluated by comparison with dendrochronological dates(9,10) and inclusion in site and regional chronologies that contained previously determined radiocarbon dates on other materials(11-15). Notably, the compound-specific dates from each of the C-16:0 and C-18:0 fatty acids in pottery vessels provide an internal quality control of the results(6) and are entirely compatible with dates for other commonly dated materials. Accurate radiocarbon dating of pottery vessels can reveal: (1) the period of use of pottery  (2) the antiquity of organic residues, including when specific foodstuffs were exploited  (3) the chronology of sites in the absence of traditionally datable materials  and (4) direct verification of pottery typochronologies. Here we used the method to date the exploitation of dairy and carcass products in Neolithic vessels from Britain, Anatolia, central and western Europe, and Saharan Africa.


Using lipid residues absorbed in potsherds, the ages of pottery from various archaeological sites are determined and validated using sites for which the dates are well known from other methods.