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到21世纪末全球众多城市将经历显著变暖 快报文章
气候变化快报，2021年第2期
作者:  廖琴
Microsoft Word(19Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：514/1  |  提交时间：2021/01/20
Multi-model Projections  Urban Climates  
Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (5)
作者:  Maher, Nicola;  Lehner, Flavio;  Marotzke, Jochem
收藏  |  浏览/下载：12/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/02
internal variability  SMILEs  large ensembles  short-term projections  mid-term projections  surface temperature  model differences  
Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2020, 233
作者:  Khan, Najeebullah;  Shahid, Shamsuddin;  Ahmed, Kamal;  Wang, Xiaojun;  Ali, Rawshan;  Ismail, Tarmizi;  Nawaz, Nadeem
收藏  |  浏览/下载：30/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/02
General circulation model  Climate change projections  Heat waves  Gridded climate data  Pakistan  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：41/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Using indices of atmospheric circulation to refine southern Australian winter rainfall climate projections 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 5481-5493
作者:  Grose, Michael R.;  Foster, Scott;  Risbey, James S.;  Osbrough, Stacey;  Wilson, Louise
收藏  |  浏览/下载：16/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Atmospheric circulation  Climate projections  Model selection  
Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 4857-4869
作者:  Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg;  Larsen, Morten A. D.;  Christensen, Ole B.;  Drews, Martin;  Stendel, Martin
收藏  |  浏览/下载：15/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Regional climate model ensembles  PRUDENCE  ENSEMBLES  CORDEX  Pattern scaling  Climate projections  
Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Villafuerte, Marcelino Q., II;  Macadam, Ian;  Daron, Joseph;  Katzfey, Jack;  Cinco, Thelma A.;  Ares, Emma D.;  Jones, Richard G.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：18/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
climate change  climate projections  multi-model ensemble  the Philippines  
Uncertainty component estimates in transient climate projections Precision of estimators in a single time or time series approach 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 2501-2516
作者:  Hingray, Benoit;  Blanchet, Juliette;  Evin, Guillaume;  Vidal, Jean-Philippe
收藏  |  浏览/下载：10/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Uncertainty sources  Climate projections  ANOVA  Internal variability  Model uncertainty  Scenario uncertainty  Precision of estimates  
Numerical simulation of surface solar radiation over Southern Africa. Part 2: projections of regional and global climate models 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 2197-2227
作者:  Tang, Chao;  Morel, Beatrice;  Wild, Martin;  Pohl, Benjamin;  Abiodun, Babatunde;  Lennard, Chris;  Bessafi, Miloud
收藏  |  浏览/下载：10/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Surface solar radiation  Climate change projections  Regional climate model  Southern Africa  CORDEX-Africa  CMIP5  
Large-scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (6) : 2043-2060
作者:  Erauskin-Extramiana, Maite;  Arrizabalaga, Haritz;  Hobday, Alistair J.;  Cabre, Anna;  Ibaibarriaga, Leire;  Arregui, Igor;  Murua, Hilario;  Chust, Guillem
收藏  |  浏览/下载：39/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
climate change  exclusive economic zone  future projections  poleward shift  species distribution model  tuna