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Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7797) : 80-+
作者:  Wannes Hubau;  Simon L. Lewis;  Oliver L. Phillips;  Kofi Affum-Baffoe;  Hans Beeckman;  Aida Cuní;  -Sanchez;  Armandu K. Daniels;  Corneille E. N. Ewango;  Sophie Fauset;  Jacques M. Mukinzi;  Douglas Sheil;  Bonaventure Sonké;  Martin J. P. Sullivan;  Terry C. H. Sunderland;  Hermann Taedoumg;  Sean C. Thomas;  Lee J. T. White;  Katharine A. Abernethy;  Stephen Adu-Bredu;  Christian A. Amani;  Timothy R. Baker;  Lindsay F. Banin;  Fidè;  le Baya;  Serge K. Begne;  Amy C. Bennett;  Fabrice Benedet;  Robert Bitariho;  Yannick E. Bocko;  Pascal Boeckx;  Patrick Boundja;  Roel J. W. Brienen;  Terry Brncic;  Eric Chezeaux;  George B. Chuyong;  Connie J. Clark;  Murray Collins;  James A. Comiskey;  David A. Coomes;  Greta C. Dargie;  Thales de Haulleville;  Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem;  Jean-Louis Doucet;  Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert;  Ted R. Feldpausch;  Alusine Fofanah;  Ernest G. Foli;  Martin Gilpin;  Emanuel Gloor;  Christelle Gonmadje;  Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury;  Jefferson S. Hall;  Alan C. Hamilton;  David J. Harris;  Terese B. Hart;  Mireille B. N. Hockemba;  Annette Hladik;  Suspense A. Ifo;  Kathryn J. Jeffery;  Tommaso Jucker;  Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu;  Elizabeth Kearsley;  David Kenfack;  Alexander Koch;  Miguel E. Leal;  Aurora Levesley;  Jeremy A. Lindsell;  Janvier Lisingo;  Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez;  Jon C. Lovett;  Jean-Remy Makana;  Yadvinder Malhi;  Andrew R. Marshall;  Jim Martin;  Emanuel H. Martin;  Faustin M. Mbayu;  Vincent P. Medjibe;  Vianet Mihindou;  Edward T. A. Mitchard;  Sam Moore;  Pantaleo K. T. Munishi;  Natacha Nssi Bengone;  Lucas Ojo;  Fidè;  le Evouna Ondo;  Kelvin S.-H. Peh;  Georgia C. Pickavance;  Axel Dalberg Poulsen;  John R. Poulsen;  Lan Qie;  Jan Reitsma;  Francesco Rovero;  Michael D. Swaine;  Joey Talbot;  James Taplin;  David M. Taylor;  Duncan W. Thomas;  Benjamin Toirambe;  John Tshibamba Mukendi;  Darlington Tuagben;  Peter M. Umunay;  Geertje M. F. van der Heijden;  Hans Verbeeck;  Jason Vleminckx;  Simon Willcock;  Hannsjö;  rg Wö;  ll;  John T. Woods;  Lise Zemagho
收藏  |  浏览/下载:27/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions(1-3). Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest '  carbon sink'  will continue for decades(4,5). Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests(6). Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth'  s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature(7-9). Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth'  s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass(10) reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth'  s climate.


  
Boundary Layer Quasi-Equilibrium Limits Convective Intensity Enhancement from the Diurnal Cycle in Surface Heating 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2020, 77 (1) : 217-237
作者:  Hansen, Zachary R.;  Back, Larissa E.;  Zhou, Peigen
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
CAPE  Convective storms  Heat budgets  fluxes  Statistical techniques  Cloud resolving models  
Reply to "What Is the Maximum Entropy Principle? Comments on 'Statistical Theory on the Functional Form of Cloud Particle Size Distributions'" 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (12) : 3961-3963
作者:  Wu, Wei;  McFarquhar, Greg M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Cloud microphysics  Clouds  Drop size distribution  Statistical techniques  Spectral analysis  models  distribution  
Deterministic Skill of Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts for the East Africa-West Asia Sector from September to May 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019, 124 (22) : 11887-11896
作者:  Vigaud, N.;  Tippett, M. K.;  Robertson, A. W.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
S2S rainfall forecasts show statistically significant skill in the East Africa-West Asia sector out to Week 4  Forecast skill of dynamical models exceeds that of statistical models based on ENSO and the MJO  Tropical-temperate interactions may represent a new source of S2S predictability  
Advantage of NEX-GDDP over CMIP5 and CORDEX Data: Indian Summer Monsoon 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 228: 152-160
作者:  Jain, Shipra;  Salunke, Popat;  Mishra, Saroj K.;  Sahany, Sandeep;  Choudhary, Naveen
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Regional climate modeling  Indian summer monsoon  Statistical downscaling  General circulation models  Multi-model mean  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution Modeled as a Dependent Hidden Markov Process 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (22) : 7837-7855
作者:  Jing, Renzhi;  Lin, Ning
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Atmosphere  Hurricanes  typhoons  Climatology  Statistical forecasting  Stochastic models  Risk assessment  
Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (22) : 7597-7609
作者:  Buerger, G.;  Pfister, A.;  Bronstert, A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Extreme events  Rainfall  Climate change  Statistical techniques  Time series  Stochastic models  
Simultaneous Dependence of the Earthquake-Size Distribution on Faulting Style and Depth 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Petruccelli, A.;  Gasperini, P.;  Tormann, T.;  Schorlemmer, D.;  Rinaldi, A. P.;  Vannucci, G.;  Wiemer, S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
statistical seismology  seismotectonics  statistical modeling  earthquake forecasting  models evaluation  seismic hazard assessment  
Pair Correlations and Spatial Statistics of Deep Convection over the Tropical Atlantic 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (10) : 3211-3228
作者:  Senf, Fabian;  Brueck, Matthias;  Klocke, Daniel
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Atlantic Ocean  Intertropical convergence zone  Deep convection  Mass fluxes  transport  Statistical techniques  Stochastic models  
Historical and future storm surge around New Zealand: From the 19th century to the end of the 21st century 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Cagigal, Laura;  Rueda, Ana;  Castanedo, Sonia;  Cid, Alba;  Perez, Jorge;  Stephens, Scott A.;  Coco, Giovanni;  Mendez, Fernando J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
global climate models  multiple linear regression  statistical downscaling  storm surge  weather types