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Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 226-+
作者:  Blasius, Bernd;  Rudolf, Lars;  Weithoff, Guntram;  Gaedke, Ursula;  Fussmann, Gregor F.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:30/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Predator-prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey(1-4). However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods(5-8) and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors(9-19). Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator-prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator-prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator-prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.


  
Temperature influence on peatland carbon accumulation over the last century in Northeast China 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 2161-2173
作者:  Liu, Hanxiang;  Yu, Zicheng;  Han, Dongxue;  Gao, Chuanyu;  Yu, Xiaofei;  Wang, Guoping
收藏  |  浏览/下载:27/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Carbon accumulation rate  Temperature  Region compare  Regression model  Future change tendency  
Efficacy of tendency and linear inverse models to predict southern Peru's rainy season precipitation 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2018, 38 (5) : 2590-2604
作者:  Wu, Shu;  Notaro, Michael;  Vavrus, Stephen;  Mortensen, Eric;  Montgomery, Rob;  de Pierola, Jose;  Block, Paul
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
southern Peru precipitation  operational forecast  tendency model  linear inverse model  statistical forecast  drought