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Abrupt increase in harvested forest area over Europe after 2015 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7814) : 72-+
作者:  Guido Ceccherini;  Gregory Duveiller;  Giacomo Grassi;  Guido Lemoine;  Valerio Avitabile;  Roberto Pilli;  Alessandro Cescatti
收藏  |  浏览/下载:49/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/06

Fine-scale satellite data are used to quantify forest harvest rates in 26 European countries, finding an increase in harvested forest area of 49% and an increase in biomass loss of 69% between 2011-2015 and 2016-2018.


Forests provide a series of ecosystem services that are crucial to our society. In the European Union (EU), forests account for approximately 38% of the total land surface(1). These forests are important carbon sinks, and their conservation efforts are vital for the EU'  s vision of achieving climate neutrality by 2050(2). However, the increasing demand for forest services and products, driven by the bioeconomy, poses challenges for sustainable forest management. Here we use fine-scale satellite data to observe an increase in the harvested forest area (49 per cent) and an increase in biomass loss (69 per cent) over Europe for the period of 2016-2018 relative to 2011-2015, with large losses occurring on the Iberian Peninsula and in the Nordic and Baltic countries. Satellite imagery further reveals that the average patch size of harvested area increased by 34 per cent across Europe, with potential effects on biodiversity, soil erosion and water regulation. The increase in the rate of forest harvest is the result of the recent expansion of wood markets, as suggested by econometric indicators on forestry, wood-based bioenergy and international trade. If such a high rate of forest harvest continues, the post-2020 EU vision of forest-based climate mitigation may be hampered, and the additional carbon losses from forests would require extra emission reductions in other sectors in order to reach climate neutrality by 2050(3).


  
Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7797) : 80-+
作者:  Wannes Hubau;  Simon L. Lewis;  Oliver L. Phillips;  Kofi Affum-Baffoe;  Hans Beeckman;  Aida Cuní;  -Sanchez;  Armandu K. Daniels;  Corneille E. N. Ewango;  Sophie Fauset;  Jacques M. Mukinzi;  Douglas Sheil;  Bonaventure Sonké;  Martin J. P. Sullivan;  Terry C. H. Sunderland;  Hermann Taedoumg;  Sean C. Thomas;  Lee J. T. White;  Katharine A. Abernethy;  Stephen Adu-Bredu;  Christian A. Amani;  Timothy R. Baker;  Lindsay F. Banin;  Fidè;  le Baya;  Serge K. Begne;  Amy C. Bennett;  Fabrice Benedet;  Robert Bitariho;  Yannick E. Bocko;  Pascal Boeckx;  Patrick Boundja;  Roel J. W. Brienen;  Terry Brncic;  Eric Chezeaux;  George B. Chuyong;  Connie J. Clark;  Murray Collins;  James A. Comiskey;  David A. Coomes;  Greta C. Dargie;  Thales de Haulleville;  Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem;  Jean-Louis Doucet;  Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert;  Ted R. Feldpausch;  Alusine Fofanah;  Ernest G. Foli;  Martin Gilpin;  Emanuel Gloor;  Christelle Gonmadje;  Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury;  Jefferson S. Hall;  Alan C. Hamilton;  David J. Harris;  Terese B. Hart;  Mireille B. N. Hockemba;  Annette Hladik;  Suspense A. Ifo;  Kathryn J. Jeffery;  Tommaso Jucker;  Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu;  Elizabeth Kearsley;  David Kenfack;  Alexander Koch;  Miguel E. Leal;  Aurora Levesley;  Jeremy A. Lindsell;  Janvier Lisingo;  Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez;  Jon C. Lovett;  Jean-Remy Makana;  Yadvinder Malhi;  Andrew R. Marshall;  Jim Martin;  Emanuel H. Martin;  Faustin M. Mbayu;  Vincent P. Medjibe;  Vianet Mihindou;  Edward T. A. Mitchard;  Sam Moore;  Pantaleo K. T. Munishi;  Natacha Nssi Bengone;  Lucas Ojo;  Fidè;  le Evouna Ondo;  Kelvin S.-H. Peh;  Georgia C. Pickavance;  Axel Dalberg Poulsen;  John R. Poulsen;  Lan Qie;  Jan Reitsma;  Francesco Rovero;  Michael D. Swaine;  Joey Talbot;  James Taplin;  David M. Taylor;  Duncan W. Thomas;  Benjamin Toirambe;  John Tshibamba Mukendi;  Darlington Tuagben;  Peter M. Umunay;  Geertje M. F. van der Heijden;  Hans Verbeeck;  Jason Vleminckx;  Simon Willcock;  Hannsjö;  rg Wö;  ll;  John T. Woods;  Lise Zemagho
收藏  |  浏览/下载:71/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions(1-3). Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest '  carbon sink'  will continue for decades(4,5). Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests(6). Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth'  s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature(7-9). Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth'  s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass(10) reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth'  s climate.


  
Assessing progress towards sustainable development over space and time 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 74-+
作者:  Xu, Zhenci;  Chau, Sophia N.;  Chen, Xiuzhi;  Zhang, Jian;  Li, Yingjie;  Dietz, Thomas;  Wang, Jinyan;  Winkler, Julie A.;  Fan, Fan;  Huang, Baorong;  Li, Shuxin;  Wu, Shaohua;  Herzberger, Anna;  Tang, Ying;  Hong, Dequ;  Li, Yunkai;  Liu, Jianguo
收藏  |  浏览/下载:36/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

To address global challenges(1-4), 193 countries have committed to the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)(5). Quantifying progress towards achieving the SDGs is essential to track global efforts towards sustainable development and guide policy development and implementation. However, systematic methods for assessing spatio-temporal progress towards achieving the SDGs are lacking. Here we develop and test systematic methods to quantify progress towards the 17 SDGs at national and subnational levels in China. Our analyses indicate that China'  s SDG Index score (an aggregate score representing the overall performance towards achieving all 17 SDGs) increased at the national level from 2000 to 2015. Every province also increased its SDG Index score over this period. There were large spatio-temporal variations across regions. For example, eastern China had a higher SDG Index score than western China in the 2000s, and southern China had a higher SDG Index score than northern China in 2015. At the national level, the scores of 13 of the 17 SDGs improved over time, but the scores of four SDGs declined. This study suggests the need to track the spatio-temporal dynamics of progress towards SDGs at the global level and in other nations.


  
An improved simulation of the 2015 El Nio event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 51: 269-282
作者:  Zhang, Rong-Hua;  Tao, Ling-Jiang;  Gao, Chuan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
The 2015 El Nino event  ICM  The CNOP-based approach  Optimal bias corrections to ICs and MPs  
Why was the western Pacific subtropical anticyclone weaker in late summer after the 2015/2016 super El Nino? 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2018, 38 (1) : 55-65
作者:  Liu, Boqi;  Zhu, Congwen;  Su, Jingzhi;  Hua, Lijuan;  Duan, Yihong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
the 2015  2016 super El Nino event  western Pacific subtropical anticyclone  cold SSTAs in western tropical Indian Ocean  air-sea interaction  
The Arab-Israeli Conflict 科技报告
来源:Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 出版年: 2015
作者:  [null]
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Energy and Geopolitics  Geopolitics and International Security  Governance  Economics  and Development in the Middle East  Israel and the Palestinian Territories  Middle East  Middle East Program Publications  Military and Security Issues  Political and Social Trends  Politics  Economics  and Society  Rocky Harbors: Taking Stock of the Middle East in 2015  Security Challenges and U.S. Strategy  
Maghreb Rising: Competition and Realignment 科技报告
来源:Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 出版年: 2015
作者:  Haim Malka
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Energy and Geopolitics  Geopolitics and International Security  Governance  Economics  and Development in the Middle East  Maghreb Analysis  Middle East  Middle East Program  Middle East Program Publications  North Africa  Political and Social Trends  Politics  Economics  and Society  Rocky Harbors: Taking Stock of the Middle East in 2015  Security Challenges and U.S. Strategy  The Maghreb  
The Recurring Rise and Fall of Political Islam 科技报告
来源:Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 出版年: 2015
作者:  [null]
收藏  |  浏览/下载:22/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Counterterrorism and Homeland Security  Defense and Security  Egypt  Energy and Geopolitics  Governance  Economics  and Development in the Middle East  Gulf Analysis  International Development  Israel and the Palestinian Territories  Maghreb Analysis  Middle East  Middle East Program Publications  North Africa  Political and Social Trends  Politics  Economics  and Society  Rocky Harbors: Taking Stock of the Middle East in 2015  Security Challenges and U.S. Strategy  The Gulf  
Egypt in the Region 科技报告
来源:Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 出版年: 2015
作者:  Carolyn Barnett
收藏  |  浏览/下载:15/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/05
Africa  Egypt  Energy and Geopolitics  Geopolitics and International Security  Governance  Economics  and Development in the Middle East  Gulf Analysis  Middle East  Middle East Program Publications  North Africa  Political and Social Trends  Politics  Economics  and Society  Rocky Harbors: Taking Stock of the Middle East in 2015  Security Challenges and U.S. Strategy