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Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7790) : 364-+
作者:  Krebs, John R.;  Hassell, Michael
收藏  |  浏览/下载:49/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands(1,2). They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change(3,4), yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here we present a global water tower index (WTI), which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each water tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socioeconomic changes. We conclude that the most important (highest WTI) water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountainous areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world'  s most important and vulnerable water towers.


  
Climatological Features of the Weakly and Very Stably Stratified Nocturnal Boundary Layers. Part II: Regime Occupation and Transition Statistics and the Influence of External Drivers 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (11) : 3485-3504
作者:  Abraham, Carsten;  Monahan, Adam H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Nonlinear dynamics  Boundary layer  Wind  Climate classification  regimes  Statistics  
Climatological Features of the Weakly and Very Stably Stratified Nocturnal Boundary Layers. Part III: The Structure of Meteorological State Variables in Persistent Regime Nights and across Regime Transitions 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (11) : 3505-3527
作者:  Abraham, Carsten;  Monahan, Adam H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Nonlinear dynamics  Boundary layer  Inversions  Wind  Climate classification  regimes  Statistics  
The regional asymmetric effect of increased daily extreme temperature on the streamflow from a multiscale perspective: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 228: 137-151
作者:  Chen, Lei;  Chang, Jianxia;  Wang, Yimin;  Peng, Shaoming;  Li, Yunyun;  Long, Ruihao;  Wang, Yu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Streamflow variation  Daily extreme temperature increase scenario  VIC hydrology model  Spatial and temporal scales  Asymmetric effect  Climate elasticity  
Advantage of NEX-GDDP over CMIP5 and CORDEX Data: Indian Summer Monsoon 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 228: 152-160
作者:  Jain, Shipra;  Salunke, Popat;  Mishra, Saroj K.;  Sahany, Sandeep;  Choudhary, Naveen
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Regional climate modeling  Indian summer monsoon  Statistical downscaling  General circulation models  Multi-model mean  
Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 228: 107-121
作者:  Tapiador, Francisco J.;  Moreno, Raul;  Navarro, Andres;  Luis Sanchez, Jose;  Garcia-Ortega, Eduardo
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Climate classifications  Earth System Models  Global Climate Models  Regional Climate Models  
Why Do Precipitation Intensities Tend to Follow Gamma Distributions? 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (11) : 3611-3631
作者:  Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian;  Neelin, J. David
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Convection  Precipitation  Climate change  Moisture  moisture budget  Statistics  Stochastic models  
Simulation of the projected climate change impacts on the river flow regimes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in the westerlies dominated belt, northern Pakistan 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 227: 233-248
作者:  Anjum, Muhammad Naveed;  Ding, Yongjian;  Shangguan, Donghui
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Climate change  Northern Pakistan  SWAT model  Global climate models  Representative concentration pathways  Atmosphere  
Resolving the weakening of orographic rainfall over India using a regional climate model RegCM 4.5 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 227: 125-139
作者:  Abish, B.;  Arun, K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:2/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
RegCM 4.5  Orographic rainfall  Indian summer monsoon  Climate change  Sulfate aerosols