Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aae09c |
More prolonged droughts by the end of the century in the Middle East | |
Tabari, Hossein1; Willems, Patrick1,2 | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:10 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Belgium |
英文摘要 | Climate change can put an intense pressure on already scarce water resources in the Middle East, potentially catalyzing the risk of serious water conflicts. Albeit most efforts to quantify the potential impact of climate change in the Middle East use global climate model outputs, here we employ two regional climate model outputs which are expected to provide more trustworthy projections for the region with a complex terrain and variable land surfaces. We find that not ubiquitous does future climate change lead to a decline in annual precipitation total in the region; nevertheless, the projected decline stems from an increase in number of dry days (NDD) rather than a decrease in precipitation intensity on rainy days. The increase in annual precipitation total in the southern part is driven by changes in both NDD and precipitation intensity. The drought periods will be longer (up to 90%) in about 80% of the Middle East area. The prolonged droughts in the future will increase the already high level of water stress in the region and force people to migrate or live in dreadful conditions of water poverty. |
英文关键词 | climate change regional climate model uncertainty drought dryness |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000445933400003 |
WOS关键词 | GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS ; WATER SCARCITY ; ARABIAN PENINSULA ; PROJECTED CHANGES ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; UNCERTAINTIES ; PERFORMANCE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15016 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.KULeuven, Dept Civil Engn, Hydraul Sect, Leuven, Belgium; 2.Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Brussels, Belgium |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tabari, Hossein,Willems, Patrick. More prolonged droughts by the end of the century in the Middle East[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(10). |
APA | Tabari, Hossein,&Willems, Patrick.(2018).More prolonged droughts by the end of the century in the Middle East.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(10). |
MLA | Tabari, Hossein,et al."More prolonged droughts by the end of the century in the Middle East".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.10(2018). |
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