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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aab724 |
Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 degrees C climate stabilization | |
Park, Chan1; 39;ya2 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; Japan; Austria |
英文摘要 | Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 degrees C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C scenarios, and a 1.5 degrees C scenario driven from the 2.0 degrees C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to -2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 degrees C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 degrees C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (-0.02% to -0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 degrees C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 degrees C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity. |
英文关键词 | Paris agreement (1.5 degree) climate change scenario socioeconomic scenario mitigation scenario CGE model costs and benefits |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430333400002 |
WOS关键词 | GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL ; COOLING DEGREE-DAYS ; ELECTRICITY DEMAND ; UNITED-STATES ; AIR ; TEMPERATURE ; POLICY ; METHODOLOGY ; SENSITIVITY ; CONSUMPTION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15027 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Seoul, Coll Urban Sci, Dept Landscape Architecture, Baebong Hall 6223,163 Seoulsiripdaero, Seoul 02504, South Korea; 2.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan; 3.IIASA, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Park, Chan,39;ya. Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 degrees C climate stabilization[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(4). |
APA | Park, Chan,&39;ya.(2018).Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 degrees C climate stabilization.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(4). |
MLA | Park, Chan,et al."Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 degrees C climate stabilization".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.4(2018). |
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