资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Promoting sustainable use of wild animals and plants is a global target in biodiversity conservation. However, the role of wild harvest as a conservation tool remains controversial. When unsustainable, wild harvesting leads to population decline or even extirpation of species. When sustainable, it has the potential to promote win-win solutions for conservation and development. We reviewed 87 cases of wild harvesting of vertebrates and plants in developing countries to understand the conditions influencing its sustainability. We used random forest and logistic regression to find the most important predictors among a range of biological, demographic and economic indicators, and to detail the predicted effects on sustainability of harvest. Species resilience, GDP per capita and poverty headcount ratio were the strongest predictors of sustainability. Species resilience was positively related to sustainability of harvest, whereas GDP per capita and poverty ratio were negatively related. Harvesting a species with low resilience is more likely to be unsustainable when harvested in a middle-income, high poverty ratio country than in a low-income, low poverty ratio country. This study highlights the risks of wild population harvest under the challenging economic conditions inherent in developing countries, and visualize where efforts are most needed to achieve sustainable harvest. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.