Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13624 |
Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum | |
Tansey, Christine J.1,2; Hadfield, Jarrod D.1; Phillimore, Albert B.1 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland; England |
英文摘要 | One consequence of rising spring temperatures is that the optimum timing of key life-history events may advance. Where this is the case, a population's fate may depend on the degree to which it is able to track a change in the optimum timing either via plasticity or via adaptation. Estimating the effect that temperature change will have on optimum timing using standard approaches is logistically challenging, with the result that very few estimates of this important parameter exist. Here we adopt an alternative statistical method that substitutes space for time to estimate the temperature sensitivity of the optimum timing of 22 plant species based on >200 000 spatiotemporal phenological observations from across the United Kingdom. We find that first leafing and flowering dates are sensitive to forcing (spring) temperatures, with optimum timing advancing by an average of 3 days degrees C-1 and plastic responses to forcing between -3 and -8 days degrees C-1. Chilling (autumn/winter) temperatures and photoperiod tend to be important cues for species with early and late phenology, respectively. For most species, we find that plasticity is adaptive, and for seven species, plasticity is sufficient to track geographic variation in the optimum phenology. For four species, we find that plasticity is significantly steeper than the optimum slope that we estimate between forcing temperature and phenology, and we examine possible explanations for this countergradient pattern, including local adaptation. |
英文关键词 | chilling citizen science forcing local adaptation phenology photoperiod plasticity space for time |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404863300030 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY ; LOCAL ADAPTATION ; EVOLUTIONARY SIGNIFICANCE ; WARMING CLIMATE ; BUD BURST ; POPULATIONS ; TREES ; RESPONSES ; SENSITIVITY |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16658 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Inst Evolutionary Biol, Kings Bldg, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.Woodland Trust, Kempton Way, Grantham, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tansey, Christine J.,Hadfield, Jarrod D.,Phillimore, Albert B.. Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(8). |
APA | Tansey, Christine J.,Hadfield, Jarrod D.,&Phillimore, Albert B..(2017).Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(8). |
MLA | Tansey, Christine J.,et al."Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.8(2017). |
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