Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13932 |
Why decadal to century timescale palaeoclimate data are needed to explain present-day patterns of biological diversity and change | |
Fordham, Damien A.1,2; Saltre, Frederik1,2; Brown, Stuart C.1,2; Mellin, Camille1,2,3; Wigley, Tom M. L.1,2,4 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:3页码:1371-1381 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; USA |
英文摘要 | The current distribution of species, environmental conditions and their interactions represent only one snapshot of a planet that is continuously changing, in part due to human influences. To distinguish human impacts from natural factors, the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, since the Last Glacial Maximum, are often used to determine whether patterns of diversity today are artefacts of past climate change. In the absence of high-temporal resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions, this is generally done by assuming that past climate change occurred at a linear pace between widely spaced (usually, 1,000 years) climate snapshots. We show here that this is a flawed assumption because regional climates have changed significantly across decades and centuries during glacial-interglacial cycles, likely causing rapid regional replacement of biota. We demonstrate how recent atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the climate of the past 21,000 years can provide credible estimates of the details of climate change on decadal to centennial timescales, showing that these details differ radically from what might be inferred from longer timescale information. High-temporal resolution information can provide more meaningful estimates of the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, the location and timing of drivers of physiological stress, and the extent of novel climates. They also produce new opportunities to directly investigate whether short-term climate variability is more important in shaping biodiversity patterns rather than gradual changes in long-term climatic means. Together, these more accurate measures of past climate instability are likely to bring about a better understanding of the role of palaeoclimatic change and variability in shaping current macroecological patterns in many regions of the world. |
英文关键词 | climate dissimilarity climate stability climate velocity growing degree days novel climates palaeoecology phenology feedbacks quaternary climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425396700040 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES-RANGE SHIFTS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LATE QUATERNARY ; GEOGRAPHIC PATTERNS ; NORTH-AMERICA ; MODEL ; VELOCITY ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17109 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Adelaide, Environm Inst, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2.Univ Adelaide, Sch Biol Sci, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 3.Australian Inst Marine Sci, PMB 3, Townsville, Qld, Australia; 4.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fordham, Damien A.,Saltre, Frederik,Brown, Stuart C.,et al. Why decadal to century timescale palaeoclimate data are needed to explain present-day patterns of biological diversity and change[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(3):1371-1381. |
APA | Fordham, Damien A.,Saltre, Frederik,Brown, Stuart C.,Mellin, Camille,&Wigley, Tom M. L..(2018).Why decadal to century timescale palaeoclimate data are needed to explain present-day patterns of biological diversity and change.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(3),1371-1381. |
MLA | Fordham, Damien A.,et al."Why decadal to century timescale palaeoclimate data are needed to explain present-day patterns of biological diversity and change".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.3(2018):1371-1381. |
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