GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1111/gcb.14138
How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability
Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.1; Blois, Jessica L.2; Williams, John W.3,4; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego1,5; Maguire, Kaitlin C.2,6; Lorenz, David J.3
2018-08-01
发表期刊GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
ISSN1354-1013
EISSN1365-2486
出版年2018
卷号24期号:8页码:3575-3586
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Spain
英文摘要

Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information.


英文关键词climate change climate novelty community-level modeling ecological forecasting no-analog climate Quaternary species distribution modeling
领域气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000437284700026
WOS关键词SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; EXTINCTION RISK ; NORTH-AMERICA ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; BIODIVERSITY ; SPACE ; TIME ; COMMUNITIES ; TEMPERATURE
WOS类目Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
被引频次:53[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17553
专题气候变化
资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Maryland, Ctr Environm Sci, Appalachian Lab, Frostburg, MD 21532 USA;
2.Univ Calif Merced, Sch Nat Sci, Merced, CA USA;
3.Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Climat Res, Madison, WI USA;
4.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA;
5.Univ Cordoba, Dept Bot Ecol & Plant Physiol, Cordoba, Spain;
6.Coll Idaho, Orma J Smith Museum Nat Hist, Caldwell, ID USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.,Blois, Jessica L.,Williams, John W.,et al. How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(8):3575-3586.
APA Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.,Blois, Jessica L.,Williams, John W.,Nieto-Lugilde, Diego,Maguire, Kaitlin C.,&Lorenz, David J..(2018).How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(8),3575-3586.
MLA Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.,et al."How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.8(2018):3575-3586.
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