Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4336-7 |
Analysis of return periods and return levels of Yearly July-September extreme droughts in the West African Sahel | |
Chamani, Romeo1,2; Monkam, David1,3; Djomou, Zephirin Yepdo4 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:3421-3433 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Cameroon |
英文摘要 | This paper aims to model the occurrence of Yearly July-September (YJAS) extreme droughts in the West African Sahel (WAS) and to estimate return periods and return levels of these events through stationary peaks-over-threshold model. For this purpose, the historical gridded monthly rainfall data from Climatic Research Unit for the period 1901-2009 were used. The results show that return levels of YJAS dry extremes have increased since 1970, implying that YJAS extreme droughts are consistently more severe after 1970 than they were before. Approximately 62% of the WAS area in the postchange period of 1971-2009 was dominated by dry spells not longer than 1 year. The dynamics of the YJAS extremes drying trend indicate that the changes at the tails of YJAS dry extreme distribution have contributed to the dry trend in mean YJAS rainfall in the WAS. The estimated 40-year return level of these events based on 1971-2009 period was less than the average of dry extremes of the same period, suggesting that droughts could intensify in the future even though with some amelioration. Such a finding could prove helpful in anticipation of climate risks in this region where adaptive capacities are very low. |
英文关键词 | West African Sahel Extreme droughts Peaks-over-threshold Return periods Return levels |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463842700052 |
WOS关键词 | RAINFALL ; DRY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181461 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Douala, Fac Sci, Lab Fundamental Phys, POB 24157, Douala, Cameroon; 2.Univ Yaounde I, Fac Sci, Dept Phys, POB 812, Yaounde, Cameroon; 3.Univ Douala, Fac Sci, Dept Phys, POB 24157, Douala, Cameroon; 4.Natl Inst Cartog, POB 157, Drg Yaounde, Cameroon |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chamani, Romeo,Monkam, David,Djomou, Zephirin Yepdo. Analysis of return periods and return levels of Yearly July-September extreme droughts in the West African Sahel[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:3421-3433. |
APA | Chamani, Romeo,Monkam, David,&Djomou, Zephirin Yepdo.(2019).Analysis of return periods and return levels of Yearly July-September extreme droughts in the West African Sahel.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,3421-3433. |
MLA | Chamani, Romeo,et al."Analysis of return periods and return levels of Yearly July-September extreme droughts in the West African Sahel".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):3421-3433. |
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