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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4404-z |
Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe | |
Mishra, Niti; Prodhomme, Chloe; Guemas, Virginie | |
2019-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:4207-4225 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain |
英文摘要 | There is now a wide range of forecasts and observations of seasonal climatic conditions that can be used across a range of application sectors, including hydrological risk forecasting, planning and management. As we rely more on seasonal climate forecasts, it becomes essential to also assess its quality to ensure its intended use. In this study, we provide the most comprehensive assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation ensemble forecasts of the EUROSIP multi-model forecasting system over Europe. The forecasts from the four individual climate models within the EUROSIP are assessed using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. One equally and two unequally Weighted Multi-Models (WMMs) are also constructed from the individual models, for both climate variables, and their respective forecasts are also assessed. Consistent with existing literature, we find limited seasonal climate prediction skill over Europe. A simple equally WMM system performs better than both unequally WMM combination systems. However, the equally WMM system does not always outperform the single best model within the EUROSIP multi-model. Based on the results, it is recommended to assess seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast of individual climate models as well as their multi-model mean for a comprehensive overview of the forecast skill. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal climate forecast Probability Ensemble Forecast Weighted Multi-Model Forecast Verification |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000467187600024 |
WOS关键词 | PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION ; ENSEMBLE ; SYSTEM ; COMBINATION ; PREDICTABILITY ; OSCILLATION ; SELECTION ; IMPROVE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181894 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Dept Earth Sci, Carrer Jordi Girona 29-31, Barcelona 08034, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mishra, Niti,Prodhomme, Chloe,Guemas, Virginie. Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:4207-4225. |
APA | Mishra, Niti,Prodhomme, Chloe,&Guemas, Virginie.(2019).Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,4207-4225. |
MLA | Mishra, Niti,et al."Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):4207-4225. |
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