GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4404-z
Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe
Mishra, Niti; Prodhomme, Chloe; Guemas, Virginie
2019-04-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号52页码:4207-4225
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Spain
英文摘要

There is now a wide range of forecasts and observations of seasonal climatic conditions that can be used across a range of application sectors, including hydrological risk forecasting, planning and management. As we rely more on seasonal climate forecasts, it becomes essential to also assess its quality to ensure its intended use. In this study, we provide the most comprehensive assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation ensemble forecasts of the EUROSIP multi-model forecasting system over Europe. The forecasts from the four individual climate models within the EUROSIP are assessed using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. One equally and two unequally Weighted Multi-Models (WMMs) are also constructed from the individual models, for both climate variables, and their respective forecasts are also assessed. Consistent with existing literature, we find limited seasonal climate prediction skill over Europe. A simple equally WMM system performs better than both unequally WMM combination systems. However, the equally WMM system does not always outperform the single best model within the EUROSIP multi-model. Based on the results, it is recommended to assess seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast of individual climate models as well as their multi-model mean for a comprehensive overview of the forecast skill.


英文关键词Seasonal climate forecast Probability Ensemble Forecast Weighted Multi-Model Forecast Verification
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000467187600024
WOS关键词PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION ; ENSEMBLE ; SYSTEM ; COMBINATION ; PREDICTABILITY ; OSCILLATION ; SELECTION ; IMPROVE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:52[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181894
专题气候变化
作者单位Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Dept Earth Sci, Carrer Jordi Girona 29-31, Barcelona 08034, Spain
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Mishra, Niti,Prodhomme, Chloe,Guemas, Virginie. Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:4207-4225.
APA Mishra, Niti,Prodhomme, Chloe,&Guemas, Virginie.(2019).Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,4207-4225.
MLA Mishra, Niti,et al."Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):4207-4225.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Mishra, Niti]的文章
[Prodhomme, Chloe]的文章
[Guemas, Virginie]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Mishra, Niti]的文章
[Prodhomme, Chloe]的文章
[Guemas, Virginie]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Mishra, Niti]的文章
[Prodhomme, Chloe]的文章
[Guemas, Virginie]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。