GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1029/2018WR023088
Winter Precipitation and Summer Temperature Predict Lake water Quality at Macroscales
Collins, S. M.1,2; Yuan, S.3; Tan, P. N.3; Oliver, S. K.1,4; Lapierre, J. F.5,6; Cheruvelil, K. S.7,8; Fergus, C. E.9; Skaff, N. K.7; Stachelek, J.7; Wagner, T.10; Soranno, P. A.7
2019-04-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2019
卷号55期号:4页码:2708-2721
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Canada
英文摘要

Climate change can have strong effects on aquatic ecosystems, including disrupting nutrient cycling and mediating processes that affect primary production. Past studies have been conducted mostly on individual or small groups of ecosystems, making it challenging to predict how future climate change will affect water quality at broad scales. We used a subcontinental-scale database to address three objectives: (1) identify which climate metrics best predict lake water quality, (2) examine whether climate influences different nutrient and productivity measures similarly, and (3) quantify the potential effects of a changing climate on lakes. We used climate data to predict lake water quality in similar to 11,000 north temperate lakes across 17 U.S. states. We developed a novel machine learning method that jointly models different measures of water quality using 48 climate metrics and accounts for properties inherent in macroscale data (e.g., spatial autocorrelation). Our results suggest that climate metrics related to winter precipitation and summer temperature were strong predictors of lake nutrients and productivity. However, we found variation in the magnitude and direction of the relationship between climate and water quality. We predict that a likely future climate change scenario of warmer summer temperatures will lead to increased nutrient concentrations and algal biomass across lakes (median similar to 3%-9% increase), whereas increased winter precipitation will have highly variable effects. Our results emphasize the importance of heterogeneity in the response of individual ecosystems to climate and are a caution to extrapolating relationships across space.


领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000468597900009
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ICE COVER ; LAND-USE ; RESPONSES ; NUTRIENT ; TRENDS ; PHOSPHORUS ; IMPACTS ; PATTERNS ; NITROGEN
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182214
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA;
2.Univ Wyoming, Dept Zool & Physiol, Laramie, WY 82071 USA;
3.Michigan State Univ, Dept Comp Sci & Engn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA;
4.US Geol Survey, Upper Midwest Water Sci Ctr, Middleton, WI USA;
5.Univ Montreal, Dept Sci Biol, Montreal, PQ, Canada;
6.GRIL, Montreal, PQ, Canada;
7.Michigan State Univ, Dept Fisheries & Wildlife, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA;
8.Michigan State Univ, Lyman Briggs Coll, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA;
9.US EPA, Natl Res Council, Corvallis, OR USA;
10.Penn State Univ, US Geol Survey, Penn Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Unit, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Collins, S. M.,Yuan, S.,Tan, P. N.,et al. Winter Precipitation and Summer Temperature Predict Lake water Quality at Macroscales[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(4):2708-2721.
APA Collins, S. M..,Yuan, S..,Tan, P. N..,Oliver, S. K..,Lapierre, J. F..,...&Soranno, P. A..(2019).Winter Precipitation and Summer Temperature Predict Lake water Quality at Macroscales.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(4),2708-2721.
MLA Collins, S. M.,et al."Winter Precipitation and Summer Temperature Predict Lake water Quality at Macroscales".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.4(2019):2708-2721.
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