Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL082847 |
An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming | |
Rowell, David P. | |
2019-06-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:11页码:6050-6058 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Two outlying projections of the East African Long Rains suggest the seasonal rainfall may double by the late 21st century. Previous work has linked these extremes-found in the IPSL-CM5A model-to an exceptional March to May warming of the southern Indian Ocean. The current study shows a strong feedback between sea surface temperature (SST) increases and reduced low-level cloud cover (with similar behavior in other southern subtropical oceans). An observational constraint is developed by demonstrating a correlation across 28 models between the strength of present-day interannual SST-cloud sensitivity and future SST response. Verification of the present-day sensitivity finds that IPSL-CM5A's feedbacks are very likely overestimated. It is therefore suggested its projections should be discounted for the March to May southern Indian Ocean and East African Long Rains. This narrows the CMIP5 plausible range of Long Rains totals by a third. |
英文关键词 | East Africa Indian Ocean climate change emergent constraint CMIP5 cloud feedbacks |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477616200046 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL ; UNCERTAINTY ; TOP |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184110 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rowell, David P.. An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(11):6050-6058. |
APA | Rowell, David P..(2019).An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(11),6050-6058. |
MLA | Rowell, David P.."An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.11(2019):6050-6058. |
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