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DOI10.1007/s00382-019-04617-3
Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part II: development and validation of methodology
Karmalkar, Ambarish V.1,2,3; Sexton, David M. H.1; Murphy, James M.1; Booth, Ben B. B.1; Rostron, John W.1; McNeall, Doug J.1
2019-07-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号53页码:847-877
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England; USA
英文摘要

The usefulness of a set of climate change projections largely depends on how well it spans a range of outcomes consistent with known uncertainties. Here, we present exploratory work towards developing a strategy to select variants of a state-of-the-art but expensive climate model suitable for climate projection studies. The strategy combines information from a set of relatively cheap, idealized perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) and CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (MME) experiments, and uses two criteria as the basis to select model variants for a PPE suitable for future projections: (a) acceptable model performance at two different timescales, and (b) maintaining diversity in model response to climate change. This second part of a pair of papers builds upon Part I in which we established a strong relationship between model errors at weather and climate timescales across a PPE for a variety of key variables. This relationship is used to filter out parts of parameter space that do not give credible simulations of present day climate, while minimizing the impact on ranges in forcings and feedbacks that drive model responses to climate change. We use statistical emulation to explore the parameter space thoroughly, and demonstrate that about 90% can be filtered out without affecting diversity in global-scale climate change responses. This leads to the identification of plausible parts of parameter space from which model variants can be selected for projection studies. We selected and ran 50 variants from the plausible parameter combinations and validated the emulator predictions. Comparisons with the CMIP5 MME demonstrate that our approach can produce a set of plausible model variants that span a relatively wide range in model response to climate change. We also highlight how the prior expert-specified ranges for uncertain model parameters are constrained as a result of our methodology, and discuss recommendations for future work.


英文关键词Uncertainty Perturbed parameter ensemble Seamless assessment Statistical emulation Filtering parameter space Plausible model variants
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000471722400050
WOS关键词NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION ; PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION ; SYSTEMATIC-ERRORS ; SENSITIVITY ; ENSEMBLE ; UNCERTAINTY ; ERA ; QUANTIFICATION ; PROJECTIONS ; SIMULATION
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184408
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Met Off, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England;
2.Univ Massachusetts, Northeast Climate Adaptat Sci Ctr, Amherst, MA 01003 USA;
3.Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
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GB/T 7714
Karmalkar, Ambarish V.,Sexton, David M. H.,Murphy, James M.,et al. Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part II: development and validation of methodology[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:847-877.
APA Karmalkar, Ambarish V.,Sexton, David M. H.,Murphy, James M.,Booth, Ben B. B.,Rostron, John W.,&McNeall, Doug J..(2019).Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part II: development and validation of methodology.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,847-877.
MLA Karmalkar, Ambarish V.,et al."Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part II: development and validation of methodology".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):847-877.
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