GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-019-02451-4
Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production
Guarin, Jose Rafael1; Emberson, Lisa2; Simpson, David3,4; Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M.1; Rowland, Diane5; Asseng, Senthold1
2019-07-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2019
卷号155期号:2页码:157-174
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; England; Norway; Sweden
英文摘要

Wheat is an important staple crop sensitive to negative effects from elevated tropospheric ozone (O-3) concentrations, but the impacts of future O-3 concentrations on wheat production in Mexico are unknown. To determine these impacts, the O-3-modified DSSAT-NWheat crop model was used to simulate wheat production in Mexico using a baseline scenario with pre-industrial O-3 concentrations from 1980 to 2010 and five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario from 2041 to 2070 paired with future O-3 concentrations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West (MSC-W) model. Thirty-two representative major wheat-producing locations in Mexico were simulated assuming both irrigated and rainfed conditions for two O-3 sensitivity cultivar classifications. The simulations showed large variability (after averaging over 30years) in yield loss, ranging from 7 to 26% because of O-3 impact, depending on the location, irrigation, and climate change emissions scenario. After upscaling and aggregating the simulations to the country scale based on observed irrigated and rainfed production, national wheat production for Mexico is expected to decline by 12% under the future RCP 8.5 climate change scenario with additional losses of 7 to 18% because of O-3 impact, depending on the cultivar O-3 sensitivity. This yield loss caused by O-3 is comparable with, or even larger than, the impact from projected future climatic change in temperature, rainfall, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Therefore, O-3 impacts should be considered in future agricultural impact assessments.


英文关键词Crop model Wheat yield Emissions scenario Future impact Food security
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000476738100002
WOS关键词SURFACE OZONE ; AGRICULTURAL CROPS ; WINTER-WHEAT ; AIR-QUALITY ; YIELD ; GROWTH ; MODEL ; PERFORMANCE ; RESPONSES ; EXPOSURE
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184427
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA;
2.Univ York, Environm & Geog Dept, Stockholm Environm Inst, York, N Yorkshire, England;
3.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, EMEP MSC W, Oslo, Norway;
4.Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Space Earth & Environm, Gothenburg, Sweden;
5.Univ Florida, Dept Agron, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
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GB/T 7714
Guarin, Jose Rafael,Emberson, Lisa,Simpson, David,et al. Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,155(2):157-174.
APA Guarin, Jose Rafael,Emberson, Lisa,Simpson, David,Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M.,Rowland, Diane,&Asseng, Senthold.(2019).Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production.CLIMATIC CHANGE,155(2),157-174.
MLA Guarin, Jose Rafael,et al."Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production".CLIMATIC CHANGE 155.2(2019):157-174.
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