Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02451-4 |
Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production | |
Guarin, Jose Rafael1; Emberson, Lisa2; Simpson, David3,4; Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M.1; Rowland, Diane5; Asseng, Senthold1 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 155期号:2页码:157-174 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England; Norway; Sweden |
英文摘要 | Wheat is an important staple crop sensitive to negative effects from elevated tropospheric ozone (O-3) concentrations, but the impacts of future O-3 concentrations on wheat production in Mexico are unknown. To determine these impacts, the O-3-modified DSSAT-NWheat crop model was used to simulate wheat production in Mexico using a baseline scenario with pre-industrial O-3 concentrations from 1980 to 2010 and five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario from 2041 to 2070 paired with future O-3 concentrations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West (MSC-W) model. Thirty-two representative major wheat-producing locations in Mexico were simulated assuming both irrigated and rainfed conditions for two O-3 sensitivity cultivar classifications. The simulations showed large variability (after averaging over 30years) in yield loss, ranging from 7 to 26% because of O-3 impact, depending on the location, irrigation, and climate change emissions scenario. After upscaling and aggregating the simulations to the country scale based on observed irrigated and rainfed production, national wheat production for Mexico is expected to decline by 12% under the future RCP 8.5 climate change scenario with additional losses of 7 to 18% because of O-3 impact, depending on the cultivar O-3 sensitivity. This yield loss caused by O-3 is comparable with, or even larger than, the impact from projected future climatic change in temperature, rainfall, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Therefore, O-3 impacts should be considered in future agricultural impact assessments. |
英文关键词 | Crop model Wheat yield Emissions scenario Future impact Food security |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000476738100002 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE OZONE ; AGRICULTURAL CROPS ; WINTER-WHEAT ; AIR-QUALITY ; YIELD ; GROWTH ; MODEL ; PERFORMANCE ; RESPONSES ; EXPOSURE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184427 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; 2.Univ York, Environm & Geog Dept, Stockholm Environm Inst, York, N Yorkshire, England; 3.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, EMEP MSC W, Oslo, Norway; 4.Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Space Earth & Environm, Gothenburg, Sweden; 5.Univ Florida, Dept Agron, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guarin, Jose Rafael,Emberson, Lisa,Simpson, David,et al. Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,155(2):157-174. |
APA | Guarin, Jose Rafael,Emberson, Lisa,Simpson, David,Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M.,Rowland, Diane,&Asseng, Senthold.(2019).Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production.CLIMATIC CHANGE,155(2),157-174. |
MLA | Guarin, Jose Rafael,et al."Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production".CLIMATIC CHANGE 155.2(2019):157-174. |
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